FURTHER signs of strain in the Scottish retail sector have emerged in a key survey of third-quarter economic activity.
The survey, published today by Scottish Chambers of Commerce, shows that the retail and wholesale sectors north of the Border together suffered a third consecutive quarterly fall in sales. And they suffered an accelerating decline in optimism.
The survey comes hard on the heels of a downbeat monitor of retail sector activity north of the Border in September, published this week by the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC). The value of Scottish retail sales fell in September at the sharpest year-on-year pace since records began in 1999, excluding distortions related to the timing of Easter. Retail sales value in September was 2.9 per cent lower than in the same month of last year, the SRC found.
People's engagement with the independence referendum, unseasonably warm weather, and continued weakness of food sales amid the supermarket price war were cited in the SRC survey as key factors.
Scottish Chambers said its survey, overall, indicated further expansion of the Scottish economy during the third quarter. However, it observed that the economic expansion indicated for the third quarter was slower than in a "high-performing" preceding three months.
The manufacturing sector enjoyed solid growth in orders in the third quarter, Scottish Chambers' survey found. But the pace of increase was weaker than in the second quarter.
The survey signals strong overall expansion by the Scottish financial and business services sectors.
It shows the construction sector enjoyed further growth in work in the third quarter, although the pace of increase was much slower than in the previous three months. The tourism sector enjoyed a buoyant third quarter, Scottish Chambers found, with providers enjoying significantly greater demand than in the same period of last year.
Liz Cameron, chief executive of Scottish Chambers, cited the impact of the Commonwealth Games and The Ryder Cup on the tourism sector.
Commenting on the overall survey findings, Ms Cameron said: "Scottish businesses have performed strongly throughout the year, with positive indications of further expansion throughout the economy. However, a number of businesses had cited the referendum on Scotland's future as a concern and the continued difficulties in the eurozone and world economies present a challenge to growth."
Figures published yesterday by the Scottish Government show solid growth in manufactured exports during the second quarter.
Scottish manufactured export volumes grew by 2.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June. This matched the rate of increase in the first quarter.
Comparing the year to June with the previous 12 months, Scottish manufactured export volumes grew by just 0.5 per cent. They had fallen 6.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of last year.
The drinks sector, of which Scotch whisky is a crucial part, saw export volumes dip by 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June. However, the refined petroleum, chemical and pharmaceutical products sector achieved a 4.4 per cent rise in exports and the engineering and allied industries posted a 4.7 per cent increase.
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