In leafy East Lothian, a group of well-heeled women has met regularly over the years to talk about life, and - half an hour before the evening draws to a close - to pay cursory attention to the book that nominally they've gathered to discuss.

A year ago, only one admitted she was going to vote Yes in the referendum. The other seven were staunch naysayers, rolling their eyes at the very thought of independence. Now, with three days to go before the ballot, all eight are in the Yes camp, including the high-powered lawyer and teacher at a fee-paying school who had previously been ardent unionists.

What had they been reading to bring about this volte face? I will never know, but it was more likely the pre-book chat that changed their minds than literature of a revolutionary nature.

It is the teacher's conversion that most fascinates me. Her subject is economics, yet if you believe polls and pundits this is the area that creates most hesitancy among female voters, the confusion and lack of clarity around our financial future putting off some who might otherwise be tempted to consider a vote for independence.

Since women account for 52 per cent of the electorate, it is inevitable that we are seen as enormously influential in Thursday's outcome. Whichever way it goes, we will be held accountable. From the campaign's start, however, the importance of women to the verdict has galled some political commentators, casting an unwelcome fog over proceedings and forcing them to grope around in the dark among a sector whose vacillation or reluctance to embrace change has, often unfairly, been characterised as timidity or apathy.

Unlike men, women's voting intentions have been harder to pin down. Although in many respects little distinguishes us from our male counterparts, one thing is evident: women rarely vote in packs. There is little of the herd mentality, or club outlook, fewer ancient affiliations, less of a tradition of political sparring and debate. The only verity has seemed to be that as a group we were more likely to say no, thanks.

But anyone who second-guesses this constituency may live to regret it. Just as the No camp was rejoicing that women appeared to be more drawn to support the status quo, the gender gap started to narrow. What began as a gulf as deep as the North Sea is now no wider than the Union Canal. Indeed, a poll by ScotCen Scottish Social Attitudes Survey last month showed virtually no difference in attitude between male and female graduates, or the over-65s - the one increasingly inclined towards Yes, the other to No - but demonstrated that in other areas there was still a marked discrepancy.

One word sums up the difference: uncertainty. When all other issues have been addressed - identity, nuclear energy, defence, oil, self-determination, and so on - we're told that what unnerves some women is the economic question mark that hangs over our heads.

No-one can predict what effect independence will have on our prosperity. Cast-iron assurances on wealth simply do not exist. The same, however, is true if we vote No. Despite apocalyptic warnings by banks, businesses and politicians of what will happen if we choose to break the Union, nobody really knows what an independent Scotland's economy will look like in the decades ahead. How astonishing, nevertheless, that the professionals who failed to see financial armageddon hurtling towards us in 2008 are suddenly equipped with binoculars and a level of wisdom and caution that was tragically lacking as banks began to collapse like the Red Road flats.

Male Yes voters apparently handle the prospect of fiscal uncertainty with greater insouciance, but I'm not convinced that's true. As one who can't bring myself to back a horse at Musselburgh Races for fear of losing a tenner, I hardly fall into the reckless camp. Yet I, and many women like me, believe we can take an educated guess about our country's future, and vote Yes with confidence, if not utter assurance.

After all, what important step in anyone's life, be it in the job centre, registrar's office or polling booth, offers a guarantee? None I can think of. People who view women voters as essentially different from men are every bit as misguided as those who think we can be certain of anything in this world.