As a bellweather constituency which consistently returns an MP of the governing party, a by-election in Corby would generate intense scrutiny at any time.
The contest in November resulting from the unexpected resignation of high-profile Tory backbencher Louise Mensch will, however, provide particularly rich pickings for the political soothsayers. As the first seat that either Conservative or Liberal Democrat parties have defended since forming their Coalition in 2010 it comes when the separate parties are increasingly focused on their differences. At the vulnerable mid-point of the parliamentary term, an anti-Government swing is to be expected and with the economy in the longest double-dip recession on record and the forecasts increasingly gloomy, Labour must be on course to regain the seat.
Please enable cookies in your browser to display the rest of this article.