LIKE all truces, the agreement brokered in Minsk will only be seen as successful if the fighting actually stops today, if opposing forces are withdrawn and if there is a genuine commitment to a long-term political solution.
Meanwhile for the suffering people of eastern Ukraine it will be enough if they gain some respite from the months of shelling and if some of the one million displaced are allowed to return home.
For the time being, too, a wider conflagration involving the West and Russia has been avoided and the dangerous US threat of arming the Ukrainians has been put on the back burner. All this was achieved by the tireless efforts of President Francois Hollande and Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose skilful diplomacy eventually convinced President Vladimir Putin to sign up for a deal which will see Russian fighters withdrawn from the war zone and the creation of new no-go areas.
Only a week ago a different and scarier outcome was on the cards, with the US and Russia hell-bent on further escalation and confrontation. However, following a marathon 16 hours of talks in the Belarusian capital, good sense prevailed and a glimmer of hope emerged. Ahead, there are further challenges. Although the intervention by France and Germany was welcome there are no guarantees that the guns will finally fall silent. Russia too will have to exert its authority over its fighters who have fanned the conflict by supporting the aims of the separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Deeper problems such as Ukraine's application to join the EU and Nato will also have to be addressed as this was the move that challenged Russia in the first place. But praise where praise is due. Hollande and Merkel, especially the latter, went the extra mile to achieve a breakthrough and in so doing showed that Europe still has a voice in world affairs. At a time when the EU's stock had slumped it was a timely reminder that European affairs are best left in European hands.
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