Tom Gordon

WILLIE Rennie seems far too nice to deserve what fate has in store for him.

Upbeat, open and generous to his opponents on a personal level, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats comes across as one of Holyrood's most likeable politicians.

But on May 7, his party is going down in flames regardless.

There are no two ways about it: the LibDems' numbers are atrocious.

In the 2010 general election, the party won 19% of the vote in Scotland and 11 MPs.

But after entering coalition with the Tories and ratting on their pledge not to raise tuition fees, they hurtled off a cliff; safer to be a lemming these days than a Scottish LibDem.

At the 2011 Holyrood election, their vote halved and their MSPs fell from 16 to five.

A year later, they lost 80 of their 151 councillors.

Then in 2014, they came sixth behind Ukip and the Greens in the European election.

Their sole Scottish MEP was among the casualties in a rout that saw the party lose all but one of their 11 MEPs across the UK.

Recent polls suggest further disaster is nigh, with the LibDems set to lose up to 10 of their 11 Scots MPs, with only Alistair Carmichael clinging on in Orkney and Shetland.

I meet Rennie in Edinburgh West, where the party's majority is a hopelessly frail 3,800.

As in most Scottish LibDem seats, the second-placed party in 2010 was Labour, but the threat comes from the SNP juggernaut.

It's a cruel question, but it has to be asked. How many MPs will you hold on to?

Rennie balls himself up in mock agony.

""Don't ask me that!" he winces. "We can win every single seat. Are we guaranteed to win every single seat? I don't know. But I know we've got a good fighting chance."

He says a factor in their favour is that the LibDems are intensely focused on holding what they have, whereas the SNP are spreading themselves a bit thin in every seat.

"I think they [the SNP] will find the contest against us a lot more difficult than they expect, because we've been expecting this for years. We've been digging in for a long time."

But why should the rot suddenly stop now?

The difference this time, he argues, is that voters have had time to appreciate the LibDem contribution to the full five years of the government, and will want them back to temper the excesses of whoever is the major partner in the next coalition.

"The last five years have been worth it," he says. "Even though there's been a toll on our party, the impact that we've made on the government has been enormous. We've held them back on a hell of a lot of things - civil liberties, cuts, fair taxes, the environment.

"If we weren't there the country would be in a worse state. It was the right thing to do, and I would do the same again. I would do things differently, but I would do the same again."

You've been stomped in election after election, surely you're in for another stomping?

Rennie shakes his head and insists the party still has strong pockets of support in seats such as North East Fife and Edinburgh West, where it outperforms the national trend.

But aren't those just the fag end of the party, the places you haven't died yet?

"You've got a very pessimistic, dark outlook," he frowns. "What it shows is that where we're under pressure we can get the message across."

Alistair Carmichael recently said you'd hold all 11 seats - will you?

"I think it's possible to hold all 11." You mean mathematically possible?

"There's a route to victory in every single one. I know we can win every single one. I've worked out how we can do it. I know the right messages. I know the right organisation. I know how to win elections. I know how to do it. So I know we can."

Acutely aware of the damage inflicted by past U-turns, the LibDems have effectively given up making manifesto promises in favour of listing "priorities" instead.

"We've learned from tuition fees. We have an aversion to signing pledges," Rennie jokes.

Among the new "top priorities" - ie the price list for would-be coalition partners - are ending the UK's revenue deficit by 2017-18, more health and education spending, tax cuts for lower and middle earners and a mansion tax for the rich.

But all appear negotiable. Nor is anything beyond the pale when it comes to a deal.

Even the Tory plan for in-out referendum on the EU wouldn't scupper a second pact.

"I don't think we've ever said anything is absolutely No under any circumstances. Are the Tories saying they'll never compromise on anything? I don't think they are. I don't think Labour's doing that either. It's sensible mature politics."

But for a staunchly pro-EU party like his, isn't an in-out referendum a red line?

"It's important," he says blandly. Could he cope with it as part of a coalition deal? "Yeah."

Presenting his party as the sensible economic option, Rennie says the LibDems would cut £50bn less than the Tories, borrow £70bn less than Labour, and borrow £180bn less than the SNP, who he says would "spend the moon" if they could.

The Canute-like MSP is also trying to halt the SNP tsunami by attacking the Nats for neglecting good government in the referendum and being an ongoing threat to the UK.

A big group of SNP MPs would "accelerate a path towards another referendum", he says.

So what is the right time until a referendum? "The SNP said a lifetime. I'll settle for that."

You mean there shouldn't be a vote for 80 years? "That's what they said before the referendum. It's not my rules, it's their rules."

You honestly think there shouldn't be another referendum until, what, the year 2100?

"I don't want another referendum. I don't want another one at all." Not ever? "No, I don't think there should be another one because I'm not in favour of independence."

It sounds emphatic, but mention a possible Holyrood coalition with the SNP and suddenly the heady pheromones of power change Rennie's mood beyond recognition.

Despite ruling out a pact with the SNP in Westminster, Edinburgh is another matter.

Contrasting Nicola Sturgeon favourably with Alex Salmond, he purrs: "I admire her in many ways. There's no doubt that she's got talent, and I can work with her."

In coalition? "Yes, possibly. I mean, absolutely, absolutely. I think it's not impossible. We'll consider all the factors when it comes to the time, because so much can change over the next year." It's a very different tune to that of his refusenik predecessor Tavish Scott.

So if the maths allowed an SNP-LibDem coalition next year, would a second referendum be a red line or is that negotiable too?

"It depends how many votes we get." So it is negotiable? "We will look at all these things when we get closer to the time. I think it would be difficult for the SNP to say they want another referendum when they said there wouldn't be one for a lifetime."

But if the SNP put a second referendum in their manifesto and fell just short of another majority, would you supply the other votes? "I'm not going to get into that."

You're not ruling it out though? "Because I'm a very reasonable guy."

You're also a 'Never say never' guy, aren't you? "Well, I'm being reasonable. I have to reflect what people vote. But if people vote for the SNP you could well get another referendum in the next five years. I think it would be bad for the economy. It would be bad for democracy that we're trying to overturn a result that just happened."

Yet you won't rule it out? "Let's see how it shakes up in this election and the next one."

The following day, perhaps regretting his candour, Rennie sneakily contacts another paper to claim a second referendum would be a "deal breaker" to a coalition after all.

What next week's official position will be is anyone's guess.

All politicians can be two-faced, but the LibDems have raised it to a high art.

They're about to find out the voters can be very harsh critics indeed.