THE stock reaction is that Bayern v Barcelona in the Champions League semi-final is really an "early final": these are, supposedly, the two best sides in the world and wouldn't it have been nice if they had faced off in Berlin instead?
That may well be the case. But there are so many more layers to this, starting with the managers, Luis Enrique and Pep Guardiola. You'll read a lot about their shared Barca heritage in the coming days, but it's not quite as cut-and-dried as it seems. They overlapped for five seasons at the Camp Nou, but Guardiola spent 18 years there as a player, joining at the age of 12. Luis Enrique, on the hand, arrived as a man of 26. He was already an established Spain international and he was jumping ship from arch-rival Real Madrid.
In other words, one grew up with it and, like the prodigal son, traveled the world in search of new influences (Roma and Brescia in Italy, Dorados in Mexico, Al-Ahli in Qatar) only to return to his spiritual home, win everything and set off again. The other is a convert to the cause and, as sometimes happen with those who discover and embrace the faith as adults, is perhaps more of a zealot.
That narrative was perhaps valid in the first half of the season.
Guardiola has long shown his pragmatism - or, because that has negative connotations, adaptability. The short-passing game that had defined his first years at Barca was already evolving in his final seasons at the Camp Nou and continued its constant search for innovation in his first two years at Bayern. Different formations, different combinations of personnel, bending the system and, occasionally, the philosophy to the skills of individuals: Guardiola has done all that, like a person of faith who has worked through and modulated his beliefs.
Luis Enrique, on the other hand, remained a true believer in the early part of his spell at the Camp Nou, just as he had been in his previous stops, Celta and Roma. The accusation of rigidity wasn't unfounded. And it came to a head when Luis Suarez returned from suspension and he had to cram him into a front three alongside Lionel Messi and Neymar. That's when the stutters happened, the media conjectured and, if you believe the rumors, the manager had to make a
choice: adapt or leave. He chose the former. Suarez moved to a more traditional centerforward role, Messi went back to his flank, Barca become somewhat more pragmatic, occasionally going so far as to line up with two ballwinners - Sergio Busquets and Javier Mascherano - in midfield.
It's not a faith betrayed. It's a faith developed. A bit like Guardiola's. The result is a Barca team that has gone on a fearsome tear through La Liga and the Champions' League. And Bayern? Well, they've been just as devastating, despite a horrid list of injuries, in-house squabbles with the medical staff, and a Bundesliga that was wrapped up a long time ago. Guardiola would likely have tinkered and experimented anyway, but the forced absences have only accelerated that process.
Right now, this is as good as it gets in the world game. The shared roots are evident, but they've developed in their own way. And Guardiola's journey has given him fare more flexibility and adaptability than his opponent. Which is why, while Barca may be more talented over all, you may just give Bayern a slight edge.
BECAUSE of the byzantine ways in which Champions' League cash gets divided up among clubs, even if Juventus get hammered by Real Madrid in the semifinal, they will earn more from this competition (£70m-
plus) than anybody else. So, in that sense, it's already a success.
Real Madrid, 180 minutes away from the chance to win their eleventh European Cup while becoming the first team in 25 years to win back-to- back titles, are heavily favored. Each manager will have a huge call to make.
Carlo Ancelotti will be devoid of Luka Modric, who may be the most difficult piece to replace, even more so than that Portuguese bloke who scores all the goals. The Croatian has completed his evolution from attacking midfielder to deep-lying playmaker/Xabi Alonso impersonator. His reading of the game neutralizes a fair chunk of danger before it hits the back four. It's what allows Ancelotti to
indulge Florentino Perez's Panini-sticker approach to team-building.
Against Atletico, he used a centerback like Sergio Ramos in midfield.
On other occasions, he has turned to Asier Illaramendi, Sami Khedira and Lucas Silva, often with subpar results, particularly as far as the first two are concerned.
Across the way, Max Allegri needs to decide what kind of Juve shows up. Over two legs against Monaco, it was a throwback team, one built around stout defending and counterattack, in a certain kind of Italian tradition. With a bit of good fortune over the two legs, it yielded dividends, but it certainly doesn't play to Juve's strengths, not least because the team are simply unaccustomed to it. And if you concede so much of the ball to a better team than Monaco, you will likely be punished. On the other hand, if Juve play their normal
style and go for the jugular, they leaves themselves open to the prospect of Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo galloping into space on the break, like they did last season. And that won't be pretty either.
LOOK! They're at it again. Jose Mourinho and Arsene Wenger are about as fond as each other as Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin, so it's not surprising they fired the usual little darts at each other ahead
of today's clash at the Emirates. Wenger, asked about Chelsea's bus parking against Manchester United last week, couldn't help himself and said it was "easy to defend".
To which Mourinho replied: "It's not easy. If it was easy you wouldn't lose 3-1 at home to Monaco."
It's churlish to point out that there's a difference between defending well and putting your whole team behind the ball and giving your opponents 70 percent possession at home. Or that Mourinho would not have done that at Stamford Bridge against Monaco, so it's rather a moot point. Or, indeed, that Wenger simply can't help but walk into verbal situations like this one which simply make him look silly.
Still, it will be interesting to see if we witness a re-run of last week at the Emirates today from Mourinho. Barring divine intervention, Chelsea will win the title and, in that sense, the
outcome of this game doesn't really matter. Not so for Arsenal.
Slipping to fourth - a realistic possibility - could mean the Champions' League qualifying rounds, which is always a headache.
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