Everyone remembers Andy Robinson's departure as Scotland coach two years ago, when he resigned in the wake of a humiliating loss to Tonga.
But it would probably be more instructive to think back to the early days of his reign, in 2009, when he led the side through an Autumn Test programme that saw them win two of their three games.
In its aftermath, Scottish supporters looked forward with optimism to the Six Nations championship that would get under way a couple of months later. The consensus was a corner had been turned. The players were playing with renewed flair and self-belief. An exciting tournament lay in store.
It was Robinson who pointed out the danger of premature celebrations. He reminded us that being confident after the November internationals was a well-established trait in Scottish rugby circles, but one that was rarely borne out by subsequent results.
As if to press the point, Robinson's side then lost their first three games in the championship. The reasons to be cheerful that had been so apparent at the tail end of one year were devilishly difficult to find in the early months of the next one. If Vern Cotter has any sense - and the evidence to date suggests he has plenty - then he will remind his players of that pattern.
Cotter, unquestionably, has pulled together a team and a style of playing that suits Scotland down to the ground. He took bold selection decisions at the outset, bravely leaving Kelly Brown and John Barclay out of his November squad, and his choices were justified by the up-tempo style his pack produced. Moreover, he canvassed the likes of Jim Telfer and Ian McGeechan in his effort to create a characteristically Scottish template for his team.
Paul Ackford, the former England lock, once said that selection is the essence of coaching, that everything else was largely "self-serving hokum". An exaggeration, perhaps, but Cotter has certainly got that bit right. He has erred on the side of pace and mobility in every decision. His lock replacements - Dave Denton and Kieran Low - have been back-row rather than second-row specialists.
He has also brought sharpness to the attack. The Scots scored 11 tries over the course of this year's Autumn Tests; last year's haul was just six - and all of those against Japan. In the past, Scotland players have talked the talk before playing New Zealand; this year they walked the walk as well.
The Glasgow core of the side has undoubtedly helped Cotter to develop a style quickly. That is most obvious in the backline, but the forwards have been just as impressive. The Gray brothers have been outstanding and any club that wants to sign them as a pair will need very deep pockets.
Cotter has also found a side where the spine players - full-back, fly-half, hooker and No 8 - are all in form. Greig Laidlaw has led, and played, superbly. Yes, we should be confident about the next Six Nations. But cautious, too, for it kicks off in Paris, where Scotland have not won for 15 years. They have hit a new level over the past few weeks, but they will have to go higher still if that sequence is to be ended.
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