RUSSIA: Hard-liners determined to keep former oil tycoon Khodorkovsky in prison
From John Follet in Moscow

HE is the Kremlin's most famous prisoner and the man who had it all, only to have most of it taken away piece by piece. Now it seems that jailed oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky's troubles could be about to get much worse.

On trial for the second time in less than a decade, the Soviet nature of his pre-trial hearings suggests the Kremlin wants his sentence in a labour camp more than 3000 miles east of Moscow extended - by more than 20 years.

As the financial crisis strains Russia's tightly-controlled political system and speculation swirls around the true intentions of President Dmitry Medvedev, Khodorkovsky has become a pawn in a new round of Kremlin intrigue.

A symbol of selective Kremlin justice, his second trial - on embezzlement and money-laundering charges - promises to reveal whether Russia is really headed in a new direction. Does Medvedev really represent a loosening of the country's soft authoritarianism, as liberals hope? Or is it business as usual, with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and a tight circle of Kremlin hawks pulling the strings? The Khodorkovsky Show, as it's being called, should provide some answers.

The bespectacled businessman's fall from grace was precipitous. In better times he was Russia's richest man, worth an estimated $15 billion. He ran and owned most of its biggest oil company, Yukos, and was the most successful of all the oligarchs - the sharp-elbowed businessmen who made their fortunes in the 1990s.

He wasn't an angel, but then none of the oligarchs were. They had amassed fortunes by buying up industrial assets that once belonged to the defunct Soviet Union at bargain-basement prices. In the process, they had bent or broken what few rules there were and fought one another tooth and nail to secure the best purchases in what would later be called the sale of the century. Khodorkovsky wanted more. Specifically, he wanted political power to match his bank balance, and began bankrolling parties opposed to Putin when he was president. The Kremlin's response was swift and its retribution terrible.

In 2003, armed men stormed his private jet as it idled on a Siberian runway. He was charged with massive fraud and a Moscow court later found him guilty, handing down an eight-year prison sentence. At the same time, his oil company, Yukos, was effectively killed off. Hit with huge back tax bills, its best assets were given to state-controlled oil giant Rosneft. Yukos was declared bankrupt and many of Khodorkovsky's former top lieutenants were arrested or forced to flee the country. It was - or so it seemed - game, set and match to Putin.

But as Khodorkovsky became eligible for parole and the prospect of his release in 2011 loomed - just one year before Russia's next presidential election - someone in the Kremlin decided to go after him again. New charges have been drawn up and a new trial, handled by the same state prosecutors who convicted him the first time around, is getting under way.

This time he is charged with embezzling more than $20bn and with money-laundering. Early developments suggest he's not going to get an easy ride. The judge has rejected every request his lawyers have tabled and pro-Kremlin youth activists have picketed the courthouse, demanding he be handed another tough jail sentence.

"The aim is not to let him out, especially now when there's a crisis," said Lev Ponamaryov, a veteran human rights activist. "They're worried he will fight to recover his money and they've noticed his growing potential as a public figure."

Few ordinary Russians have any time for the oligarchs, particularly at a time when they're being forced to tighten their own belts. But opinion polls show Khodorkovsky's popularity is ticking a little higher. Though still only in single figures, analysts say he could become a charismatic leader of the country's enfeebled opposition if and when he gets out.

In prison, he has shown an increased interest in politics, and though his fortune has been sharply diminished, he is still reported to possess serious financial resources. As a debate about the country's future direction rages behind and beyond the Kremlin's red walls, some influential voices are suggesting the charges against him should be dropped. The head of Russia's business lobby has publicly criticised their "perplexing" nature, and a sometime adviser to Medvedev has said the same.

A pardon or an acquittal would be seen as a sign that a new, more liberal direction is a reality rather than mere rhetoric. A conviction would send the opposite signal. As such, the two powerful and competing Kremlin clans are likely to try to influence the outcome. Khodorkovsky's supporters are pessimistic. "They'll find him guilty," said Ponamaryov. "Putin is the kind of person who doesn't forgive anyone anything."