UK economic growth recovered to an around-trend pace in the second quarter as a jump in oil output and improved service sector expansion more than offset contraction in manufacturing, official figures have shown.
Figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter. Growth had halved to 0.4 per cent in the first quarter, from 0.8 per cent in the final three months of last year.
The second-quarter rise in GDP is equivalent to an annualised pace of expansion of about 2.8 per cent. This is broadly in line with the long-term average annual rate of UK economic growth - put at about 2.75 per cent by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.
The 0.7 per cent increase in GDP was achieved even though UK manufacturing output dropped by 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June.
Chancellor George Osborne’s March 2011 vision of “a Britain carried aloft by the march of the makers” continued to prove elusive. Manufacturing output rose by just 0.1 per cent in the first quarter.
Broader industrial production was up by one per cent, in large part as a result of a 7.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter leap in mining and quarrying output, a crucial component of which is North Sea oil and gas extraction. This jump followed a 0.5 per cent fall in the first quarter.
Howard Archer, chief UK economist at consultancy IHS Global Insight, said second-quarter mining and quarrying activity would likely have been helped by oil prices coming off their January lows.
The ONS said: “Evidence from the Department of Energy and Climate
Change suggested the recent tax changes announced in the March Budget could be a contributing factor to the rise in mining and quarrying.”
It also cited this “evidence” when it published industrial production figures for May earlier this month.
The industrial production data showed that oil and gas extraction had risen for a third consecutive month in May. It jumped by 7.3 per cent month-on-month during May, the fastest pace of growth since February 2014.
The ONS said: “This was due to increases in crude oil production, gas and NGL
(natural gas liquids) from offshore pipelines and offshore loaders in some of the North Sea terminals.”
The latest GDP figures show that the UK services sector grew by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter, having increased by 0.4 per cent in the opening three months of 2015.
However, construction sector output was flat between the first and second quarters.
Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said: “The first estimate of GDP in Q2 confirmed that the economic recovery got back on track after its slowdown at the start of the year.”
However, she added: “Admittedly, the recovery remains very unbalanced.”
Mulling the outlook for UK base rates, which have been at a record low of 0.5 per cent since March 2009, Ms Redwood said: “On the face of it, this could bring an interest-rate rise closer, but we think that there is plenty of scope for the economy to grow strongly for a period without generating a pick-up in inflationary pressures.”
She added: “Accordingly, although [the GDP] data may give some ammunition to the more hawkish members of the [Monetary Policy] Committee, we still think that a rate rise will be delayed until next year.”
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel