A STATISTICS watchdog accused the Scottish Government of delaying the release of controversial recorded crime figures until after last year’s referendum.
The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) suggested the decision to move the publication date of the crime data could be perceived as “politically motivated”.
However, Roger Halliday, the Scottish Government’s chief statistician, refuted the claim and wrote that he was “upset” by the allegation.
The role of the UKSA, an independent body, is to ensure that official statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value.
One of its key functions is to decide whether statistics can be “designated”, which means being given a seal of approval.
This newspaper can reveal that the UKSA and the Scottish Government became embroiled in a behind-the-scenes spat last year over crime data that covered the first year of Police Scotland. Two linked issues were the source of last year’s row.
In early 2014, the UKSA wanted to reassess crime statistics covering the legacy forces that made way for Police Scotland.
The reassessment took place due to fears over dodgy crime data in England and Wales – the UKSA decided to extend its probe north of the Border. However, the Scottish Government believed that such an exercise would take resources away from its top priority of publishing separate Police Scotland data that summer.
In February 2014, a senior UKSA figure informed the Government that it was to push ahead with its inquiry into police legacy data: “I do understand the pressures that you’re
under, but we have to press on with the reassessment now.”
A civil servant shot back: “I am afraid that I am not clear as to why ‘we have to press on with the reassessment now’.”
“I would kindly ask for a reconsideration of the ‘need to press on’ taking into account the very different Scottish context.”
After it became clear that the reassessment would take place, Halliday informed the UKSA that publication of Police Scotland crime stats would have to be delayed.
In response, the UKSA director general Ed Humpherson cautioned against the move: “Rescheduling (until after the referendum) could be perceived as politically motivated: an attempt to avoid the publication of up-to-date figures that would otherwise have been used in public debate. If such a perception held sway it could be very damaging to the reputation of SG for statistical
independence.”
Halliday outlined his horror at the suggestion the delay was political.
“I was upset about the feedback from some assessment committee members who suggested my decision was politically motivated. As I said last week, I completely refute this and wanted to lay out my thought process and how/when I involved others in this decision.
“My difficulty was that I couldn’t see a way of guaranteeing the statistics would be produced to the necessary level of quality and explained to users ahead of mid-August.”
In the end, the UKSA reassessment of legacy data was published in July, while the Government released the Police Scotland recorded crime figures in November – two months after the referendum. As a result of its probe, the UKSA refused to designate the legacy force data after encountering various problems.
The Government’s November figures showed crime was at a 40-year low, but whistleblowers alleged that the stats did not
present a true picture.
Scottish Conservative chief whip John Lamont said: “This was a period where the Scottish Government effectively became an arm of the Yes campaign. So it’s no surprise to see suspicions among senior ranks that contentious reports were being delayed for fear of negative publicity ahead of the referendum.’’
A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “The recorded crime figures published for 2013-14 were positive, showing a further drop in crime levels and the achievement of a 40-year low in recorded crime in Scotland.
“We always publish our bulletins as soon as they are ready. However, we needed to reschedule last year due to the extra work needed following police reform.
“Of course, in the same year, the UKSA also chose to undertake a UK-wide review of crime statistics and these included recommendations for the Scottish Government to meet in order to ensure National Statistics Standards. This proved to be a lengthy exercise and we continue to work with the UK Statistics Authority to put in place additional measures to meet the new requirements and ensure the highest standards are applied to publication of data.”
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