THIS Scotland team is the one everyone expected Vern Cotter to pick, and it is the one I would have picked myself. It is particularly pleasing to see the return of Finn Russell and Mark Bennett, because those two backs give us a cutting edge in attack, and hopefully they will help get our back three going.
The back-row blend also looks very useful. John Hardie deserves to return after playing so well against Japan, and Ryan Wilson never lets anyone down when he pulls on a Scotland jersey. Those two work particularly well together, and David Denton’s dynamism means he just edges it for the No 8 shirt over Josh Strauss, who I thought did not play particularly well against South Africa last weekend.
It’s a special occasion for Richie Gray, who will be winning his 50th cap, and what better occasion could there be for the big man to put in the kind of barnstorming performance with which he made his name a few years ago in a match at the Stade de France? He can offload out of the tackle more than he has been doing, and I think he has a lot more to offer in both attack and defence.
Sean Lamont will win his 100th cap if he comes off the bench, and that is a massive achievement. I’m delighted for him - he has some engine on him, and it will be a real pleasure to see him reach that landmark after all he has done for Scotland since making his debut 11 years ago.
I have no doubt that this team will do a good job against Samoa. Scotland are continuing to improve as a squad, whereas the Samoans do not have their troubles to seek. They were well beaten by Japan last week, and had their disciplinary issues, getting three men yellow-carded then later having Alesana Tuilagi cited for foul play.
That loss to Japan ended Samoa’s hopes of carrying on in the competition beyond the pool stages, but of course Scotland’s hopes are very much alive. The squad are in a very good position going into this game, and if they put in a good performance it will not only take them through as runners-up to the Springboks in Pool B, it will also set them up nicely for the quarter-finals, where they will meet Wales or Australia at Twickenham.
The first 20 minutes will be crucial. Samoa might come at Scotland pretty hard in that opening quarter, and I’m sure our team will not try to play much fancy rugby during that spell.
Scotland’s kicking game needs to be spot on. The Samoans do not like turning to retrieve balls put behind them, and they’re not great kickers themselves, which is why I expect the likes of Russell, Stuart Hogg and Greig Laidlaw to do a lot of kicking for position - at least during those first 20 minutes or so.
And it needs to be accurate kicking, to give our defence the best opportunity of containing the Samoans when they try to counter-attack. They will try to run back at Scotland from deep, so it’s important that our defence is rock solid. We cannot allow them to do anything that might help them forget about that loss to Japan and start to feel confident again.
Still, while we need a dynamic and assertive performance from Scotland right across the park, it may well be equally important to remain patient. A lot has been made of the fact that the team has scored more points in the second half than in the first during each of its three previous games, and of the need for an 80-minute display today - but that should not induce the players to attempt too much too soon. They did that for a while in the first half against the United States and it did them no favours.
Being patient is one element of what it means to play a disciplined game. Provided Scotland do that, and then do themselves justice in attack when the opportunity arises, they will be too good for Samoa.
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