IF the Scottish election is throwing up such a beast as a three-way marginal it can be found lurking in the affluent commuter belt just south of Glasgow.

Home to footballers, prominent entrepreneurs, leading legal professionals and where the working class collar is white, Eastwood, election lore tells us, was one of the Tories' safest Scottish seats until one of New Labour's totemic moments when a students' union guy called Jim Murphy nabbed it in 1997.

Fast forward 18 years and said same Mr Murphy, now leader of Scottish Labour, cements his place in the party's history after overseeing its virtual obliteration as a Westminster force, losing 40 seats to the SNP, including his own, to an unknown human resources manager.

But being played out in Eastwood in the run up to May 5 is not simply the story of post-Referendum Scotland but an undercurrent of two decades of political dynamics.

In places like Giffnock, Clarkston, Newton Mearns and Eaglesham the Tories never really suffered the terminal decline they have done in similarly affluent pockets of neighbouring Glasgow and further afield in, say, Aberdeenshire or parts of Edinburgh.

Galvanised as the standard bearers of the Union and with a potential support base no longer attracted to Corbyn's Labour and its collective amnesia of the Blair era, the stars may be aligned for three-times runner-up and ebullient Tory candidate, former car salesman Jackson Carlaw.

Labour's Ken Macintosh, who has held the Holyrood seat since 1999, is having a very nervous few weeks. He has, supporters say, a personal support as much as any candidate can have when the tide of history is moving away from your party.

A more intelligent, likeable and better political operator than some more fashionable colleagues who have become Labour leader at Holyrood, the solid No vote and anti-SNP sentiment in Eastwood's lower middle class areas is being under-estimated say Labour sources.

Ironically the removal of the one-time Labour stronghold of Barrhead from the Holyrood constituency may well be a boon for Macintosh as this demographic was crucial in forcing his former boss out the door last May.

"Coming through the middle is Ken's best hope" said one Labour source.

And Stewart Maxwell of the SNP, perhaps favourite, is similarly twitchy. Elected since 2003 and a former Government minister a victory would be his first in a head-to-head.

On the ground his support believes its their man or the Tory. Whisper it though. Perhaps out of expectation management, maybe their less sophisticated approach to canvassing than other SNP branches, but some have even suggested their candidate could come second to Carlaw.

One SNP source said: "This was one of those areas where until very recently it was still a two-horse race between Labour and the Tories. Now its us against the Tories. And the SNP is harnessing an anti-Tory vote."

According to the Scottish Index for Multiple Deprivation 60 per cent of the seat's datazones are among the 10 per cent most affluent areas in Scotland (it has a Wholefoods and the country's best performing state schools), with a further 15 per cent among the top 20 per cent wealthiest areas in the country.

One source said: "It's this which will be a vital factor and if it will benefit anyone will benefit the Tories. It's one of the few areas in the country where, outwith the political debaters, the SNP's policy on changing the council tax will be an issue. There's a lot of big houses.

"These people will pay more and will be resistant to it. Similarly other tax raising powers, where they feel they might be the loser, is likely to take these issues beyond the Holyrood bubble and into voters' homes."

The local council is jointly run by the SNP and Labour. It lacks the tooth and claw politics of Glasgow or Renfrewshire to the west. There is little localised tribalism to hand anyone an advantage.

What it does have is a strongly religious population. Clarkston was a dry area until planning permission for the first pub was granted in 2006.

It has the largest Jewish demographic of any seat in Scotland, almost half the country's population living in the area.

Similarly five per cent of the population is Muslim, five times that of the much higher profile Jewish residents.

Nabeel Shaikh, former head of the Glasgow Central Mosque, said the Muslim community in the area, despite 17 years of Labour representation, had lacked a high-profile political backer for long-stated plans for a place of worship.

He said; "Culturally, historically, most Scots Muslims are independence minded. We're a diverse community but many will back the SNP. We take guidance from the Jewish community and their success around synagogues and schools and I'm proud of how strong a faith community we have.

"But the fact we're still fighting for a mosque will reflect on Ken Macintosh amongst a Muslim community increasingly politically engaged."