THOUSANDS of offenders will serve sentences in the community rather than being locked up if the views of a series of criminal justice experts are adopted.
There are growing calls for a current presumption against sentences of up to three months to be raised substantially in a bid to drive down Scotland's prison population, which remains huge by Western European standards.
The move has been overwhelmingly backed in a Scottish Government consultation, with an official analysis now finding that the vast majority of respondents, which include penal reform charities, councils, social workers and a former Director of Judicial Studies, favour a radical shift to 12 months.
In total, 85 per cent backed extending the presumption, which became law in 2010. Of them, 84 per cent said it should be set at a year, despite some concern that the move could see perpetrators of domestic abuse receive more lenient punishments.
The move would bring Scotland closer to countries such as Germany, where sentences of under one year are suspended, and Finland, where the law envisages that all sentences up to two years will be commuted to intensive forms of community supervision.
However, despite the overwhelming support, its previous backing for extending the presumption and an admission that short sentences "don't work", the Scottish Government remains publicly wary of making concrete commitments.
There was no commitment to extending the presumption in the SNP's Holyrood manifesto, while it is unclear which policies Justice Secretary Michael Matheson will pursue to deliver on his ambitious pledge to build "the most progressive justice system in Europe".
Lisa Mackenzie, Policy and Public Affairs Adviser for penal reform charity Howard League Scotland, said: "We were pleased to see a majority of the respondents to the consultation favoured extending the presumption against short periods of imprisonment to sentences of 12 months or less, and that there was support for this in the election manifestos of both the Scottish Liberal Democrat and Green parties.
"With a new parliamentary session now underway, we hope the Scottish Government will act quickly to reduce the use of short term prison sentences, both through its review of the presumption but also through a shift in emphasis and resources from custody to community-based responses to offending behaviour."
Advocates of the change say that short jail sentences do not work as they do not provide enough time for rehabilitation to address the root causes of offending, but cause enough disruption to the prisoners' life to make them more likely to commit further crimes upon release, feeding a cycle of criminality.
The official Scottish Government consultation analysis stated: "Respondents were critical of the current levels of imprisonment in Scotland. They thought extending the presumption would help achieve a reduction in the use of custodial sentences and would be in line with a generally more progressive approach to criminal justice policy. Of those who agreed with the proposal, a large majority favoured a presumption against sentences of less than 12 months."
However, it was also warned that extending the presumption in isolation was unlikely to be enough, with more investment in community-based alternatives also needed to ensure they command the confidence of the courts.
Liam McArthur, the Liberal Democrat MSP, said: "When Michael Matheson agreed to scrap the new prison at Inverclyde the response demonstrated that there is widespread support for switching to an evidence-based approach to cutting reoffending and improving rehabilitation. But that decision was just the first step. The Justice Secretary must work with others to modernise Scotland’s old-fashioned prison system.
"Listening to the experts and extending the presumption against short sentences would be an important next step towards meaningful and progressive reform."
According to the most recent International Centre for Prison Studies figures, Scotland has an incarceration rate of 143 per 100,000, slightly lower than England and Wales but compared to 45 in Iceland, 61 in Holland, 76 in Germany and 99 in France.
A spokesman for the Scottish Government said it remained committed to reducing short term sentences in favour of community alternatives. He added that a formal response to the consultation would be published "in due course."
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