SCOTLAND being dragged out of the EU despite voting to stay in would not lead to a surge in support for independence, a new poll has suggested.

The TNS survey found that if a second independence vote was called on the back of Scotland being forced out of Europe against the will of its voters, a lower proportion would vote Yes than in September 2014.

The result undermines claims from senior SNP figures, including Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond, that if Leave wins UK-wide in 15 days' time despite a strong Remain vote north of the border there will be an overwhelming demand for another independence referendum from a public keen to preserve EU status.

Read more: Brexit vote would spark second Scottish independence bid, says SNP's Angus Robertson

Ahead of the Holyrood election, Ms Sturgeon has said she would "almost certainly" call an independence referendum in the event of a "democratic outrage" of Scotland being taken out of the EU against its people's wishes.

However, asked by TNS how they would vote if a referendum was called under those circumstances, just 38 per cent said they would back Yes, with 48 per cent choosing No and 14 per cent undecided, suggesting the SNP leader would face an uphill struggle to win over a majority.

When undecideds are excluded, the result is 56 per cent No with only 44 per cent backing Yes - the lowest support for independence that has been recorded in a poll since the referendum 20 months ago.

The Herald:

The result came despite strong backing for EU membership in Scotland, with the TNS face-to-face survey finding that 51 per cent plan to vote to Remain on June 23, just 21 per cent plan to vote Leave with almost a third, 29 per cent, still undecided.

Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, "The SNP has said that a UK vote to leave the EU could trigger a new referendum on independence. However, on the basis of this latest poll it would appear that appetite for such a move is mostly limited to those who back independence rather than being shared by the public as a whole.

"There is also little evidence that opinion towards independence has shifted significantly since September 2014, with support for a Yes vote, even in these circumstances, well below the 60 per cent level that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has indicated she would be looking for before calling another vote."

Read more: Snap independence poll after Brexit vote undesirable, Humza Yousaf

Asked whether there should be another independence referendum if Scotland was to be forced out of the EU against its will, 43 per cent of a sample of more than 1,000 adults said there should be, 46 per cent said there should not with the remainder unsure.

A spokesman for the Scottish Tories said: "The SNP has desperately tried to connect the EU referendum to its own fading hopes to rehash the independence debate. This poll shows that the people of Scotland have seen through that attempt."

The result comes amid some signs that the SNP is playing down the prospect of moving for a second independence vote should Brexit occur, despite senior figures previously talking up the scenario.

The Herald:

In its manifesto, the SNP said Holyrood should have the right to hold another referendum if there is "a significant and material change in circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will" or if there is a clear shift in public opinion.

In the election campaign, Ms Sturgeon said that while she is hoping for a UK Remain vote, that "such would be the democratic outrage of Scotland being taken out of the European Union against our will... I think we would pretty quickly see an overwhelming demand for a second independence referendum."

Mr Salmond, speaking a fortnight ago, predicted another independence vote within two years if Scotland is "dragged out" of the EU "against our will", and that this time voters would back breaking away from the UK.

Read more: Scots 'would oppose independence referendum if a Brexit goes against their vote'

However, with polls increasingly suggesting Leave has a strong chance of victory, Humza Yousaf, the senior SNP minister who is leading his party's Remain campaign, has urged caution. He said last week that he did not want another referendum being triggered as a result of the EU vote, warning it would present the pro-independence side with "some additional difficulties and some additional challenges."

A spokesman for the SNP said: "As the SNP has always made clear, in the event of Scotland being dragged out of Europe against our will, there would likely be a strong public demand for a second independence referendum. As we have also made clear, the timing of any such vote is ultimately a matter for the people of Scotland.

"In the meantime, the SNP won’t take a single vote for granted and is resolutely focussed on making the positive, progressive case for Scotland and the rest of the UK staying in the EU – and the fact that this poll shows strong and growing support for Scotland’s place in Europe is very heartening."