Yes movement: ready for Indyref2 but waiting for a sign

Peter Bell, a 65-year-old blogger from Fife and founder of the Indyref2 website, is a well-kent figure on the Yes circuit, and the evening has been billed as a two-hour debate that’s “not be missed”.

With the second anniversary of Indyref1 imminent, the talk is dominated by Indyref2.

There is no doubt that it’s nigh. The only question is when.

Alex Salmond has said he expects it to be autumn 2018, during the Brexit withdrawal.

Bell goes one better and says the penultimate Thursday in September. No-one demurs.

“There’s something in the air,” he says. “There’s the feeling that something is happening. The campaign is there. Everybody is just waiting on Nicola firing the starting gun.”

It’s a common feeling in the Yes movement just now. Post-Brexit but pre-Indyref2, people are in a state of limbo, looking to Sturgeon for a sign: expecting, waiting, wondering, idling.

“I think we’re better placed than we were during the first referendum because Labour and the Tories will not be fighting together,” says non-SNP member Bill Stewart from the back row.

“They have no-one to front it with the stature of Alistair Darling or Jim Murphy. We are better prepared to fight Project Fear than we were before."

Bell agrees: “The anti-independence side will be worse placed - totally fragmented, all fighting like rats in a sack. They won’t have a coherent programme at all.”

But despite the focus on Indyref2, what is conspicuously missing is a plan.

There is almost no discussion about how to engage with and convert No voters.

Indeed, there is not a little contempt for them and plenty to confirm Yesser stereotypes. As the evening drifts on inconsequentially, one man accuses the BBC of “thought control”, while others fret about a sinister proliferation of Union Jacks on supermarket food labels.

A woman pleads for an end to the term “Unionists” as it gives them too much credit. “Really all they are is anti-Scottish,” she says.

The one note of urgency comes from Teresa Lavery, who threw herself into street campaigning in 2014, and wants to get back to it pronto.

“How are we better placed?” she asks. “Because I don’t see anybody campaigning now. What I would like to see is more discussion about how we can all come together as a unified organisation with proper training. When is that going to start? If 2018 is the latest date, we really need to get moving. We really need to do something now.”

One man trying to do something now is Jason Baird, who as founder of the National Yes Registry has been criss-crossing Scotland for months talking to Yes groups about what they need to get organising again. His answer, the Indy App, is launched today, and should help Yes supporters connect with each other, and groups coordinate their work nationwide.

“The first anniversary was kind of a lament,” he says. “But now we’re all raring to go. As soon as the Brexit button is pushed that’s when the clock starts ticking. It’s a two-year negotiation, so we need to have a referendum in those two years. I’ve not heard any doubts about that. I think it’s pretty certain there will be a referendum.”

He dismisses the idea that Sturgeon is cooling off on Indyref2 and would prefer simply to hang on to power.

“It’s wishful thinking by Unionists. People know this to be the golden moment. That’s why, every time the concept of Indyref2 comes up, Unionists try to nullify it, because they’re very scared.

“And if it doesn’t get delivered on and it fades, that’s as big a decision as going for it and failing. It will be on their [the SNP leadership’s] watch and they will get the blame.”

Many of the Yes campaigners on Baird’s Indy App are in Women for Independence.

Kathleen Caskie, its national coordinator, also says the second anniversary feels remarkably different from the brave smiles of the first.

“Everyone is micro Nicola-watching, looking at every detail of what she says, reading the runes. She’s been more emphatic about Indyref2 being on the table, and that’s interesting.

“Because she’s not a gambler. She’s not a Salmond. ‘Highly likely’ from Nicola is fighting talk.”

Patrick Harvie, co-convener of the Scottish Greens and a former member of Yes Scotland, says Brexit has not only revived the Yes movement, but has also rewritten the script.

“Independence in 2014 could sometimes be characterised as a parochial, inward-looking concept. But the idea of Scotland in Europe is international and outward-looking.

“Independence could also be characterised as an SNP agenda and if you didn’t support the SNP you should be voting No. But people voted across party political lines [for Remain].”

Although he thinks Scotland should have a stab at a “bespoke relationship” with Brussels, he knows a second referendum may well result from the failure to find one.

“If it becomes clear that a referendum on independence is the only way to protect our position in Europe, then it’s justified. If you want Scotland to vote before we come out of the EU then it has to happen within two years.”

One veteran SNP MSP, who asked not to be named, reckons Brexit has sealed the deal for Indyref2 in this parliament.

“Brexit will be the catalyst, but it won’t be the issue. It’ll be what Brexit illustrates, what it says about the democratic deficit in Scotland.”

Jonathon Shafi, a founder of the Radical Independence Campaign (RIC), agrees Brexit has transformed the Yes movement.

“The last anniversary was reflective. This one is much more determined. People are beginning to organise. The Scottish Independence Convention is relaunching. RIC has a conference next month. Then it’s SNP conference, then the Greens. There’s a good sense of momentum.

“The vast majority of the SNP membership are looking for, if not the date of another referendum, at least the line of march. People need some idea of how things are going to progress. But the SNP leadership have yet to offer that.”

That nagging lack of detail comes up a lot. Robin McAlpine, founder of Common Weal, identifies “an enormous uplift in expectations” in the Yes movement, but also trepidation that the SNP is not fully prepared.

“There is definitely some nervousness over not knowing what the plan is, about not being confident the policy work is in place, about the polls still stuck around 50/50.

“But I think the overwhelming feeling is that we're now so far up the hill we have no option but to push on and get this done."

It’s also not just the Yes side that is stirring, Caskie cautions. “The No vote is hardening. It’s getting more aggressive online. Nicola enjoyed a honeymoon, but I’m picking up a hardening of Unionism, of royalism, of Union Jack waving.

“Ruth Davidson taking over from Kezia Dugdale as leader of the opposition has polarised that in a way that wasn’t there in 2014.”

There are other jitters too. One prominent Yes supporter, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Sturgeon has “mishandled everything since June 23” and despite all the unknowns of Brexit, appeared to be painting herself into a referendum without knowing how to win.

The FM’s comments today that “oil, national wealth and balance sheets” are secondary issues compared to independence fit the gung-ho theory.

She seems to be copying the Brexiteer playbook - forget the details and enjoy taking control.

But whether you trust or distrust Sturgeon’s judgment on Indyref2, it’s clear the First Minister is now riding a tiger with the Yes movement.

Pumped up by Brexit and SNP warnings about a Tory-run Union outside Europe, her supporters are looking for that sign. It is getting harder each day to say no to them.

If she does, she also faces the ridicule heaped on Gordon “Bottler” Brown after he backed out of a 2007 election.

A future as “Chicken Nicky”, and a wounding loss of authority, would be assured.

But if Sturgeon calls the referendum and loses, her career is over and her cause in crisis.

With the UK government signalling this weekend that it will trigger Brexit in the New Year, the next six months will be the most significant of Sturgeon's political life.