HOW many bars can one expect in Snowdonia? It is not the first question walkers in the hills of North Wales ask. Outdoorsy types such as Theresa May, on holiday there with her husband, are generally more concerned with the weather and whether any Easter egg hunts they might come across conform to the high standards of a vicar’s daughter and a National Trust member.

These bars, however, are not the refreshment serving variety but the mobile phone kind. As the diplomatic battle over Syria intensifies and North Korea inches closer to replacing Cuba in missile crisis headlines, Downing Street was quick to reassure the public that despite being on a mini-break the Prime Minister was still “making calls and being constantly updated”.

Ah, but are they forwarding her mail? One only asks because there is a fairly weighty letter waiting from Scotland’s First Minister. Dated March 31, it informs Mrs May of the Scottish Parliament’s backing for a new independence referendum and initiates discussions on a Section 30 order that will enable such a vote to take place. “It is my firm view,” the FM writes, “that the mandate of the Scottish Parliament must be respected and progressed. The question is not if, but how.”

Not if but how. Since dawn broke on June 24, 2016, with the result of the EU referendum clear, the First Minister has been heading towards this point in the road, using ever more inventive ways to speak about a referendum without hesitation, obvious repetition or deviation. If you think that is a tough gig on Radio 4’s Just a Minute, try doing it for ten months. Even Paul Merton would quake at that.

But all rounds in the game show that is UK constitutional politics must eventually draw towards a close, and this one is no exception. Mrs May thought she had said enough with her “now is not the time” declaration, only for Ms Sturgeon to tell the Scottish Parliament she would return after Easter to set out the “next steps” should Downing Street continue to say no. Never mind the Easter bunny, this set the Easter hare running. What could she do? What might she do?

The questions followed her to America, and day by day it became clear what she will not do.

First, she will not go to court to challenge the UK Government’s refusal to grant a Section 30 order, saying the matter should be settled “politically”. Wise choice. A legal case would have been expensive and protracted with no guarantee of success, and every chance of boxing the party into a corner for a long time to come if the court had ruled in the UK government’s favour. Constitutional clarity is not the SNP’s friend.

Second, Ms Sturgeon will not call a snap election. Another prudent choice. That would have undermined her argument to date that she already has a mandate to seek another referendum and, again, there is always the risk of losing.

Which leaves the FM with a number of options, most of them falling into the woolly or messy categories. Her MPs and MSPs could harry the Great Repeal Bill: it would play well among supporters but try the patience of the public. The party could table any number of motions and stage debates in Holyrood or Westminster, but again, the heather is in no danger of being set alight by such tactics.

As for a mass movement springing up to demand the UK Government agree to a new referendum, it was notable that on what was billed as a historic day at Holyrood for the Section 30 vote there was barely a coach-load of independence campaigners outside the parliament. In some camera shots there were almost as many dogs as indy supporters. Yes, it was a school day and all that, but even so: the masses were hardly massing.

What, then, is left? The Scottish Government could forget about getting Westminster’s consent and pass its own bill setting up a referendum. It would then be up to the Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament or the UK Government to challenge the legislation. Thus the matter would come down to an apparently simple question: not “Who governs Britain?” but “Who speaks for Scotland?”

This road brings its own risks. For a start, a referendum, albeit one that is purely consultative, would have to follow fairly shortly after.

Holyrood is not so jam-packed with business that it would take a long time to get a bill through. Even then, the vote could be boycotted by the other parties and the public. Think of the bill the taxpayer would have to pick up for what would look like an exercise in vanity politics. Even if Ms Sturgeon wins, Mrs May is under no obligation to act. She could roundly ignore the outcome, much to the delight of her own backbenchers.

Whatever the next steps the FM has in mind, her success or failure depends on one thing above all – taking Scottish public opinion with her. Her predecessor, speaking at the weekend on BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show, appeared to think this was a given. To hear Alex Salmond talk, it is a question of when, not if, Theresa May will give in and agree to a new poll.

According to the former FM, the Prime Minister’s line cannot hold now that the will of the Scottish Parliament has been made clear. “Even Margaret Thatcher, for goodness sake, was prepared to acknowledge the right of the Scottish people to exercise self-determination. Self-determination delayed, like justice, is self-determination denied and it just won’t stand politically.” He gives it a matter of months before Mrs May’s position “crumbles”.

That is a daring punt, much like holding an advisory referendum would be. Mr Salmond knows of what he speaks given he has been through this process before with Westminster. But the crucial difference between him and his successor is that he was coming to the table to get agreement on a referendum from a position of unprecedented strength. Years on, leading a minority administration, with failures apparent and the Scottish economy veering dangerously close to recession, his successor is simply not in the same position.

Even allowing for her being up a hill in Wales, mobile signal or not, it will not be long now before Mrs May fashions a formal reply to the FM’s letter. Ms Sturgeon will then have to reveal what those promised next steps will be and put them to the test. Easter holidays are nearly over; let examination season begin.