ALTHOUGH votes in Scotland’s local authority elections will be tallied, today the outcome for many councils will remain uncertain.
Proportional representation means many authorities are likely to see no overall control and so this afternoon’s announcements will lead to further talks as coalitions are thrashed out.
The results could be particularly momentous for Scottish Labour, which is predicted to face a historic blow to its traditional dominance of many town halls.
How terminal will that blow be? According to Professor James Mitchell, head of public policy at Edinburgh University, this depends on how its representatives react in the inevitable coalition talks.
It seems likely Labour will suffer a major setback. But its losses may be limited to some extent if the party picks up support from pro-Union voters, opposed to a second independence referendum. One natural response to this might be to form coalitions with Conservative councillors, but this poses something of an existential threat to Scottish Labour, Professor Mitchell suggests.
He is surely correct. If there is any lesson the party should have learned from the 2015 independence referendum campaign it is how catastrophic it was to have appeared so closely allied with the Conservatives in the Better Together campaign.
Forming allegiances instead with SNP councillors, while bidding to win back support lost to the SNP is Professor Mitchell’s prescription.
Such alliances are not without precedent. Edinburgh and East Renfrewshire councils are already governed in this way. This does not mean announcing a volte face on independence, but foregrounding instead shared values with the SNP – a left of centre social justice agenda and opposition to targeting austerity-based cuts on Scotland’s most vulnerable.
While the Scottish Conservatives appear to be experiencing a resurgence and may also have polled well, there are signs the party will increasingly have to answer for unpopular policies born in Westminster – as it is having to do with the two child tax credits policy and the “rape clause”.
With more cut in the pipeline at national level, Professor Mitchell argues Labour cannot afford to find itself in coalitions with the Tories. This means reining back on blaming Holyrood for cuts which he says is not credible with voters.
The most fundamental barrier to Labour-SNP deals at council level is the deep historic animosity that exists between the parties in many areas. Many Labour supporters blame the SNP for the party’s recent travails and the idea of cooperation is psychologically difficult. However a change in mindset may be crucial for the party’s longer-term prospects. We do not want to see council chambers replicating the tribal hostilities of Westminster and a more consensual politics would be welcomed by many voters.
If Scottish Labour has lost big in these elections, many people will see it as just reward for losing touch with its traditional heartlands and failing to deliver in power.
How it reacts in coalition talks could well determine whether the party can bounce back or whether it slides completely into irrelevance.
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