THE public finances in the first year of an independent Scotland would have been up to £10 billion worse off than SNP ministers forecast, according to official figures.

The data for 2016/17, which would have year one of independence after a Yes vote in 2014, put the gap between Scottish tax and public spending at £13.2bn or 8.3 per cent of GDP.

This compares to the Scottish Government’s worst case scenario in its independence White Paper of £5.5bn or 3.2 per cent of GDP, including a geographical share of North Sea oil

The Scottish Government’s most optimistic scenario was a deficit of £2.7bn or 1.8 per cent, based on shouldering a minimal share of the UK debt, a difference of £10.5bn.

The huge difference is largely attributable to the collapse in the oil price since 2014, when crude prices more than halved from the SNP’s estimate of $113 per barrel.

The White Paper predicted oil revenues of £6.8 to £7.9bn in 2016/17. They were £208m.

Opposition parties said the figures showed the SNP’s plans for independence were a fantasy, and the party owed voters an apology.

Nicola Sturgeon denied the White Paper had been a “con” and said the figures had been “reliable at the time” but “circumstances changed”.

She said: “We saw a change in circumstances. We saw a quite significant shock to the Scottish economy in terms of what happened with oil and that explains the difference between the White Ppaer and what we’re looking at today.

“The figures we put forward were reliable at the time. Circumstances changed.

“We put forward, as well always do, the best available information we have at the time, but nobody, absolutely nobody, foresaw the decline in the oil price that we saw in the years after that.”

The new information is contained in the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers) figures for 2016-17, which are a National Statistics publication.

Gers also showed record UK government support for each person in Scotland.

Government spending in Scotland was £1437 more than in the rest of the UK, but tax revenue in Scotland was £312 per head less, a difference of £1749.

Six years ago Scots were net contributors to the the Exchequer, at £200 per head.

However the latest Gers figures were an improvement on those of 2014/15, which were the worst since the financial crash of 2008.

The net fiscal balance of £13.2bn was down on the £14.6bn, or 9.3 per cent of GDP of 2015/16, although still far higher than the UK’s deficit of 2.4 per cent in 2016/17.

Onshore revenues also increased by £3.3bn (6.1 per cent) between – the fastest annual increase since current records began in 1998/99.

Speaking on a visit to the Edinburgh BioQuarter, the First Minister said: “Scotland’s economy remains strong. In the last quarter, our economy grew nearly four times faster than the UK and the number of people in employment is at a record high.

“These figures reflect Scotland’s finances under current constitutional arrangements. “However, they show that our investment in key industries – such as the life-science sector – is providing a real boost to our onshore economy.

“The lower oil price had an impact on North Sea revenues and the wider economy last year. “However, it is encouraging to see an improvement in the overall fiscal balance and that onshore revenues grew at their fastest rate in nearly twenty years.

“However, our long-term economic success is now threatened by Brexit, which risks reducing household incomes, employment and funding for public services. That is why we continue to press for the Scottish Government to have a direct role in Brexit negotiations.”

Finance Secretary Derek Mackay added: “It is encouraging that our fiscal balance improved by nearly 10 per cent last year.

“It is important to also recognise that ONS analysis shows that Scotland performs ahead of Wales, Northern Ireland and several English regions, and in line with the UK average outside of London and the south-east.

“Evidence also points to signs that confidence is increasing among North Sea operators, with the sector set to remain an important part of Scotland’s economy for years to come.

“An extreme Brexit outcome would do significant damage to Scotland’s public finances and would cost our economy up to £11 billion a year from 2030, and 80,000 jobs over a decade.”

Scottish Secretary David Mundell said the figures were a “cause for concern” and showed there was “still much to be done to improve Scotland’s economy”.

He said: “They also highlight the value of pooling and sharing resources around the UK.  “Being part of a strong UK has protected our living standards, and that’s one reason the people of Scotland clearly rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s plan for a second independence referendum at the election.

“Scotland’s deficit is falling at a slower rate than the UK as a whole and economic growth is lagging behind. It is vital we grow the economy and we want to work with the Scottish Government to achieve that.”  

Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale said: “These figures prove once and for all that the SNP sold false hope to the poorest people in Scotland.  

“Scotland’s own accounts show that the first year of an independent Scotland would have meant unprecedented levels of austerity.

“These cuts would not only have been the largest ever felt by Scottish public services like schools and hospitals, the Nationalists’ plan would have taken a sledgehammer to the welfare state as we know it.

“Nicola Sturgeon knew the sums didn’t add up. But she offered false hope. Thousands of Scots voted Yes on the basis of a falsehood the SNP knowingly sold them.”

Green MSP Patrick Harvie: “Every year these figures set off a tiresome war of words between those who think Scotland could never run its own affairs and those who think the SNP approach is flawless.

"What these figures really show is that Scotland needs to build a clean economy that does not rely on oil and gas.”

Scottish LibDem leader Willie Rennie said: “Oil revenues have tanked since 2014.

“The Scottish Government must commit to provide a formal written explanation to show why its taxpayer-funded independence White Paper was so hopelessly wrong on oil revenues.

“Tens of thousands of people were given copies of the White Paper. The Scottish Government owes each of them an explanation for the gross error in the forecast.

“The SNP relied on the 2014 numbers for their independence campaign. People need to know why they got it so wrong to make sure the same mistakes can’t happen again.”