VOTERS in Scotland could be looking forward to a year of relative peace on the doorstep in 2018.

For the first time since 2013, twelve months may pass without a referendum or national election being staged.

With the SNP Government shelving indyref2, the spotlight is likely to fall on how Nicola Sturgeon’s administration is using its devolved powers.

However, a focus on bread and butter issues is dangerous territory for any government that has been in power for over 10 years.

It would have been easier for the SNP to concentrate on devolved matters in their second term - when Alex Salmond had a majority - but Sturgeon leads a minority government now and has to fight for every vote.

Paradoxically the SNP Government was better placed to win chamber votes in its first term, when they had fewer MSPs but more scope to build cross-party alliances.

An independence referendum did not dominate Holyrood between 2007 and 2011 and the SNP was able to pass its budget thanks to Tory support. Such fleeting alliances are now much harder to build.

Holyrood’s number one issue over the coming months will be whether the Government musters enough support to pass its budget.

In the first four terms of the Parliament, MSPs had limited powers on income tax that did not allow significant redistribution of wealth.

As a result of the Smith Commission, income tax has been devolved and the SNP has proposed modest tax rises for higher earners and cuts for low income Scots.

However, they may find themselves in a political bind. The tax plan does not raise the funds to cancel out austerity, but creates enough relatively well-off earners who can gripe about increases for critics to build a narrative that Scotland is the highest taxed part of the UK.

One SNP MSP said that a significant portion of voters may end up paying more in tax simply to plug holes in public services, rather than witnessing any noticeable benefits.

The smart money is on the SNP securing the support of one other party to support the budget - the Greens or the Lib Dems - but the tax rises may define the Government for the rest of the term.

Another problem area for the Government will be education, where John Swinney has discovered that effecting change in a policy area effectively devolved to 32 local authorities is a difficult task.

His initiatives - national standardised testing and “governance” reform - have been watered down and signs of improvement are hard to detect. Sturgeon once said the attainment gap would be “eliminated” - but her Education Secretary now speaks of wanting to make “demonstrable” progress.

Police Scotland is again expected to be a source of bad news for the Government. With the chief constable off on leave after being accused of bullying, and an assistant chief constable suspended, a vacuum exists at the top of policing and the Government will face pressure over the shambles.

Another tricky moment for the Government will come when MSPs vote on scrapping the Offensive Behaviour at Football and Threatening Communications (Scotland) Act, legislation passed by the SNP in 2012.

The law was meant to clamp down on sectarianism at football matches, but in practice it has been slated by campaigners and lawyers. Labour MSP James Kelly’s bid to scrap the Act has majority support and looks likely to pass.

However, while SNP difficulties seem certain, it is unclear which party, if any, will be the beneficiary.

Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson may have enjoyed electoral success, but none of her achievements have been on domestic policy. She should be able to use income tax rises to her advantage, but peak Tory may have been reached and Davidson's party looks close to the upper limit of support amongst voters.

On paper, Scottish Labour Richard Leonard has the most to gain from a year that could see Sturgeon and Davidson fight out a bloody score draw.

With support for Labour across the UK rising, a bold agenda by Leonard could see his party leapfrog the Tories and make inroads into SNP support.

However, Labour’s capacity for internal melodrama cannot be underestimated and it would take a Herculean effort to turn Leonard’s party from a warring tribe into a potential party of Government.

And while indyref 2 seems a blur on the horizon, the implications of Brexit will keep the constitution in the foreground of political debate at Holyrood.

A stand-off looms between the Scottish and UK Governments on the transfer of powers after Brexit, a dispute in which the SNP administration has a good hand to play and where the Prime Minister’s Cabinet colleagues seem eager to reach a compromise.

Sturgeon will attempt to play a leading role in a cross-party coalition to keep the UK in the single market, but she always has the option of turning up the volume on a second independence referendum.

Such a prospect may seem unlikely from the vantage point of December 2017 - the SNP recorded huge general election losses on this single issue - but Brexit could yet alter public opinion.

A more likely scenario is that the sound and fury at Holyrood becomes deafening, with plenty of losers emerging but no real winner.