A report published today in the British Journal of Cancer warned the NHS risked being "overwhelmed" by soaring cancer rates in the next 20 years and urged health service executives to plan how they would manage the increases.
A report published today in the British Journal of Cancer warned the NHS risked being “overwhelmed” by soaring cancer rates in the next 20 years and urged health service executives to plan how they would manage the increases.
The figures are likely to reopen the debate over the future sustainability of the NHS model. Some commentators had previously called for partial privatisation or a “rationing” of services.
Cancer Research UK, which carried out the study, estimated the number of new cancer cases diagnosed in the UK each year would climb from around 298,000 in 2007 to around 432,000 by 2030.
Male cancer cases are expected to see the biggest growth, of around 55% to more than 230,000 in 2030, while cancer cases among women are also forecast to increase by 35% from around 149,000 in 2007 to more than 200,000.
The surge in both male and female cancers will be mainly driven by people living longer, with the number of people aged 80 and above expected to double between now and 2030 from three million to six million. In Scotland, nearly half the population will be aged 50 or over by 2030.
Harpal Kumar, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, said: “The NHS faces a perfect storm over the next 20 years. The main reason for the rising number of cases is simply that people are living longer -- and the greatest risk factor for cancer is age.
“At a time when the finances of the health service are being squeezed, it is crucial health commissioners plan now for a massive increase in demand for cancer services, to ensure we provide high quality care to all.”
Over the next 20 years, some of the largest increases in cancer rates will be from oral, liver, malignant melanoma and kidney cancers -- especially among men. The researchers also predict the number of cases of prostate cancer diagnosed per year will grow by 25,000 by 2030, compared to 2007.
The rate of malignant melanoma -- the most dangerous form of skin cancer -- has the biggest projected increase, rising by a staggering 52% for both men and women.
In women, liver cancer rates are predicted to fall by 2%, while kidney cancer rates will rise by 18% over the next 23 years.
The study predicted the rate of breast cancer -- the biggest killer of women in the UK and Scotland -- would decline 7% from 120 cases per 100,000 in 2007 to 111 cases per 100,000 in 2030.
However, the researchers also note survival rates will continue to improve in tandem with increasing diagnosis rates, potentially pushing mortality rates down at the same time cancer incidence is on the up.
Survival rates have already doubled in the past 40 years and that is expected to continue over the next two decades.
Elspeth Atkinson, director of Macmillan Cancer Support in Scotland, said the report should be a wake-up call.
She said: “The figures back up previous research that shows there will be a significant increase in the number of people being diagnosed with cancer in Scotland.
“It’s not all bad news as better treatment and screening means the number of cancer survivors will grow as well. However, that means the cancer care system must change to ensure it can meet the needs of those living with the illness for many years
“The current system was set up at a time when cancer patients either died or were cured, but in future cancer will be a long-term condition and the NHS must change to reflect that.”
Aspirin link in prevention
MANY thousands of hereditary cancers and deaths could be prevented simply by taking aspirin, a landmark study has found.
Two pills a day cut the long-term risk of bowel cancer in people with a family history of the disease by 60%. There was also evidence of a similar impact on other solid cancers with the same genetic link.
The findings, from scientists at 43 centres in 16 countries, including the UK, suggest aspirin could prevent up to 10,000 cancers over the next 30 years, possibly saving 1000 lives.
Despite taking large doses of aspirin -- two 300mg pills per day -- patients taking part in the study suffered no undue adverse effects.
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