A eurozone break-up would trigger a deep recession in Scotland that would rival the downturn after the financial crisis of 2008 and weigh on the country for years, an influential think-tank has warned.

The Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University said it could result in the economy shrinking 5% and almost 150,000 people being left out of work.

Brian Ashcroft, professor of economics at Strathclyde University, said: "The probability that the whole of the eurozone will break up is not high, but it's certainly possible."

It came as Antonis Samaras vowed to "give hope" to the Greek people after being sworn in as prime minister yesterday.

His centre-right New Democracy party has forged a coalition with the left-wing Pasok and the smaller Democratic Left, ending weeks of political uncertainty.

Fraser of Allander economists believe Scotland's GDP would fall by 1.2% in the more likely scenario that Greece exits the eurozone. That would be enough to push Scotland into recession and lead to the loss of around 50,000 jobs.

The institute believes that although, not part of the eurozone, a break-up of the currency union could take a devastating toll on consumer and business confidence in the country. It would also lead to sharp drops in bank lending and inward investment.

It says a eurozone break-up could have a more damaging effect on the Scottish economy than the Coalition Government's austerity programme. In the latest of its closely watched reports on the Scottish economy, the institute claims the austerity programme of fiscal consolidation is the "main culprit" for the slowdown in the recovery since 2010.

"The consequences of the break-up of the eurozone would be a major economic event for Scotland, even though we are not in the euro," the report says. "With an estimated drop in Gross Domestic Product of 5.3% and loss of 144,200 jobs, the effect would be comparable in scale to the effects of the recent Great Recession."

It adds: "Such an event, only a few years after two major shocks to the Scottish economy – Great Recession and Fiscal Consolidation – is something that we must hope can be avoided. Because, if it does occur, the damage to the Scottish economy will be felt for many years to come."

The Scottish Government said: "The ongoing uncertainty has undoubtedly added to the pressure on the world economy, and that is why this Government and our enterprise agencies are doing everything within our current powers to support recovery with key successes in terms of falling unemployment, and the best record of inward investment jobs anywhere in the UK."

Labour's Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Cathy Jamieson, said it showed how "perilous" Scottish economic conditions were and that "separation will add further uncertainty".

She said: "If there is one lesson from the euro crisis for Scotland, it's that the long-term consequences of making major monetary and economic policy decisions for political, rather than sound economic reasons, can only lead to long-lasting and substantial damage to a country's economy."

Scottish Conservative finance spokesman Gavin Brown said: "The direct consequences of that [a Greek exit] are not thought to be enormous but the indirect consequences could be huge.

"The Greek Government owes tens of billions to French banks, who in turn owe billions to UK and Scottish banks."

Meanwhile, David Cameron last night called on Germany to show "solidarity" with its eurozone partners as doubts still remained that Chancellor Angela Merkel would back the use of the eurozone's £600 billion bailout fund to buy up Spanish and Italian debt.