A graph from Strathclyde Police shows for the first time the scale and consistency of the spikes in domestic abuse around weekends when Celtic and Rangers play each other. It shows that domestic abuse has risen by 30% over the course of almost eight years.
It is just one part of the ongoing analysis being conducted by the force’s domestic abuse taskforce, which has already locked up some 80 offenders responsible for more than 200 crimes.
Number one on their list of the worst 100 perpetrators of domestic abuse in the west of Scotland is a man linked to some 74 offences. Others have committed up to 54 offences.
"We have identified the most dangerous offenders and then targeted those people," said Detective Chief Inspector Peter McPike, head of the taskforce. "The more time we devote specialist resources to this the better-placed we are to understand patterns of behaviour. We aim to predict and prevent. We know when the spikes are and know who the most dangerous offenders are, so we have got to do something to prevent it.
"We are not just looking at repeat offending but at serial offending. We will try to establish if previous partners have also been subjected to similar abuse. We have found a further 109 historical offences as a result. One inquiry ended up spanning 12 years."
In the run-up to Sunday’s Old Firm clash, hundreds of victims have been offered support and known perpetrators have been contacted and warned about their behaviour. The force is targeting those on the "top 100" list and the top 50 lists in each of the divisions.
Those breaching bail conditions, with outstanding warrants or caught driving while disqualified face being arrested before the game.
What the taskforce now know is who to target and when. Their analysis also shows that, on average, some 57% of domestic abuse incidents involve alcohol. Of the incidents reported at the last Old Firm clash, some three-quarters involved alcohol.
The force is also piloting the banning of alcohol as a bail condition in cases where it has been an aggravating factor.
Traditionally, some 98% of those reporting domestic abuse have been women, but Detective Inspector Clare McGuckien, of the taskforce, said there has been a significant recent increase in the proportion of male victims.
According to the most recent figures, some 85% of victims were women abused by male partners, 12% were men abused by women and 3% were in same-sex or other relationships.
DI McGuckien said the increase was thought in part to be down to men feeling more confident about reporting such abuse.
"On average the victim has been a victim 35 times before they first contact the police," she said. "We aim to build their trust, spend time with them and, if they have suffered previous assaults, collect evidence and corroboration by speaking to neighbours, doctors and friends.
"Victims have disclosed serious sexual crimes from the past, including rape. It re-emphasises the importance of making clear that rape is rape in any setting.
"It is vital that we convey the message that these are really dangerous people. Because it goes on behind closed doors people sometimes think it is less serious, but the home is the place people should feel most safe, so it is even worse in some ways."
Last year there were 27,616 domestic violence incidents across Strathclyde. From April to September last year there were five domestic homicides. In the same period this year there has been just one.
The taskforce predicts that the overall figures will increase because of greater confidence in reporting crimes, but officers hope the new approach will prevent assaults from escalating in future.
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