DISGRACED cardinal Keith O'Brien should formally resign when Pope Francis announces major papal appointments in the next few weeks, a leading commentator on church affairs has claimed.

The Pope is to name a raft of new cardinals in what will be the most significant stamp of his papacy since he was elected by his peers last March.

But the consistory, where new cardinals from across the globe will be appointed in ­February, is expected to overlook Scotland. None of the senior clergy here are tipped to receive the red biretta, the ceremonial hat worn by cardinals.

A pope's choice of cardinals is traditionally one of the clearest signals of the direction he wants the 1.2 billion-strong Roman Catholic Church to go, and what type of man he wants to succeed him.

But one Scots commentator on Catholic affairs has said the ­consistory on February 22 could see Keith O'Brien, who resigned as Archbishop of St Andrew's and Edinburgh last year after admitting to inappropriate behaviour, become one of the few cardinals in the past two centuries to formally quit.

Hugh McLoughlin, who writes for a number of ­Catholic periodicals, said: "I'd hope for his sake that he has the good grace to submit his resignation.

"It would be best the best thing for himself, for the Catholic Church in Scotland and the church universally."

However, senior sources within the ­Catholic Church in Scotland have cast doubt on both the ­willingness and practicality of him stepping down.

They have also raised concerns over the impact it would have on clergy and congregations eager to move on from the scandal, which saw the cleric admit to decades of sexual misconduct and physical encounters with other members of the clergy.

The source also warned of a backlash over any perception that O'Brien, understood to have been staying at an enclosed abbey in the English midlands since being ordered to leave Scotland by the Vatican, was being harshly treated if it was felt he was being stripped of his role, which no longer carries any authority.

Although there have so far been few clues of likely names to become cardinals, the Archbishop of Westminster Vincent Nichols is almost certain to be one.

Overlooked and sidelined by Pope Benedict due to the former pontiff's view that he was overly liberal, he has recently been appointed to an influential Vatican committee, an indication that his outlook chimes more with Francis.

It would mean the British Isles would have three Cardinals, Ireland's Sean Brady being the third, although only two would be working cardinals.

Although there is ­nothing in church law preventing it, Scotland is unlikely to receive any new Cardinals.

A leading church source said: "We have Archbishop Tartaglia in Glasgow and Archbishop Cushley in Edinburgh.

"To create one big beast in a small country of eight bishops would create an imbalance.

"We could have two but I suspect the Vatican's view will be that it is too soon."

In the past, it was a fairly safe bet that archbishops of big dioceses or those heading Vatican departments traditionally headed by cardinals would get the three-peaked biretta.

However, Pope Francis, who renounced the spacious papal suite for a modest apartment in a Vatican guest house, and is driven around in a simple Ford Focus instead of a bulletproof Mercedes limousine, has shown little regard for precedent or tradition.

Father Antonio Spadaro, the editor of the Jesuit journal Civilta Cattolica who interviewed the Pope last summer, said: "He will feel free to choose the people he thinks should be in those positions, regardless of what was done before."