Warnings over rise in Scotland’s population

Reporter

Thursday 27 October 2011

SCOTLAND'S population is expected to reach six million within 50 years, sparking fears of a looming crisis in housing, care and social services.

Custom byline text:

Jody Harrison

Campaigners warned that the Scottish Government had not done enough to plan for the future after statisticians revised their estimate of the number of people currently living in Scotland and said the country’s population might have hit its highest ever level this year, surpassing the previous record of 5.24 million set 37 years ago.

With a boom in the number of people coming into the country and an increase in births, it is predicted that the population, which stood at 5.22 million in 2010, will jump to 5.49 million in 2020 and six million by 2055.But fears have been expressed that the country’s infrastructure will struggle to cope without major investment in vital services and housing, and business leaders have also warned of the impact of an ageing population on care and social services.Gordon MacRae, head of communications and policy at the homelessness charity Shelter Scotland, said there were now more than 150,000 people on housing waiting lists.He added: “We already know that the population demographic in Scotland is going to place increasing demands on the availability of housing across all areas, from big mansions to the smallest social housing.“The fact that the population figures are going to grow will heap pressure on Scottish politicians who have not addressed the problems with the amount of available housing in the country for decades. We are storing up a problem for the future, one that is not being addressed by the policy or budgetary priorities of the Scottish Government.”The record for Scotland’s population was set in 1974 when it reached 5,240,800, but the number decreased in subsequent years.Four years ago academics predicted that by 2017 the total number of people living in Scotland might fall below five million for the first time since the 1940s.But the fresh projections, in a report by the National Records of Scotland, indicate the population may, in fact, have grown to a record high, although the exact figure will not be known until the census results are published next year.Senior statistician Kirsty MacLachlan said the figures suggested a bigger rise in population than expected when the last set of statistics was compiled two years ago.The report showed that the number of people of working age was projected to rise from 3.27 million last year to 3.45 million in 2020, before hitting 3.5 million in 2035.However, there will be more than 300,000 extra pensioners within 25 years and the number of over-75s is expected to increase from 0.41 million last year to 0.74 million in 2035.CBI Scotland’s assistant director, David Lonsdale, warned that this would have “big implications for business”.He said: “People are going to have to save more for their future and to support themselves in their old age. An ageing population will mean that care and social services will also be affected, and it could be that the Government will have to look to the private sector to take the strain along with the public sector.”Similar figures for the whole of the UK suggest Britain is on course to reach a total population of 70 million within 16 years, with the growth fuelled by the number of migrants coming to the country.A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said: “In a globalised world, migration between countries should be encouraged. However, it is also vital that we boost our economy by growing the private sector, otherwise migrants might not find work and as a result this would drain our already fragile economy.”A spokesman for the Scottish Government said: “We welcome the news that Scotland’s population has continued to grow and now looks set to reach its highest ever level.“The Scottish Government’s priority is to help those who live here to find and sustain suitable employment, and despite the economic downturn and the numbers of existing Scots looking for work, our employment rate remains above that of the UK.“That is why we will continue, through our ambitious economic strategy, to pursue policies that support healthy population growth, address our increasing dependency ratio and ensure our country’s long-term economic prosperity.”

Commenting & Moderation

We moderate all comments on HeraldScotland on either a pre-moderated or post-moderated basis. If you're a relatively new user then your comments will be reviewed before publication and if we know you well then your comments will be subject to moderation only if other users or the moderators believe you've broken the rules, which are available here.

Moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours. Please be patient if your posts are not approved instantly.

Warnings over rise in Scotland’s population

Commenting & Moderation

MOST READ

SPONSORED LINKS

MOST COMMENTED