David Bell, professor of economics at Stirling University, has warned that the next financial year could be a "turning point" in Scotland.
He forecast the country would change from having "a benign public spending environment to one which will be as tough as any experienced during the 1970s or 1980s".
And he said: "Although 2010-11 appears to have been a tight budget, much more stringent budgets can be expected, at least until 2013-14."
Professor Bell, an advisor to Holyrood's Finance Committee, issued the warning in a report to MSPs.
He also cautioned that the "grim public spending outlook" could lead to major shake-ups in the public sector.
In his report Prof Bell argued that the "massive increase in public debt resulting from the recession" could restrict public spending in the UK and Scotland for the "foreseeable future".
He said: "Since the 2009-10 budget was published, the outlook for the Scottish, UK and world economies has changed dramatically for the worse. This will have severe consequences for public spending in Scotland for the foreseeable future.
"Thus, though the 2010-11 Draft Budget is tight in relation to budgets earlier in this decade, subsequent budgets will be much more austere."
Prof Bell went on to state that tough financial times meant both the Holyrood and Westminster governments would have to "take a strategic view of how to manage public services with fewer resources in the next few years".
He added this could mean identifying services which the public sector can no longer afford to provide, as well as services for which will have to be charged for in the future.
Prof Bell pointed out that Scotland had enjoyed "substantial real increases in public expenditure" since the beginning of this decade.
However he went on: "These are now coming to an end. The outlook for the next few years is for significant falls in public spending in the UK as a whole, which will inevitably impact on the Scottish budget."
And he said that if future budget reductions were "very significant" then the need to "develop a longer-term vision of the future of public services is pressing".
Joe Fitzpatrick, an SNP member of the Finance Committee said: "This report will leave people in no doubt that Scotland's budget has been cut this year and will be cut in future years.
"Labour's fantasy figures have been exposed and the financial mismanagement of the UK is on show for all to see."
Tory finance spokesman Derek Brownlee argued the report was further confirmation "of the mess Labour has made of the British economy and the public finances".
And with the UK national debt rising the Conservative said the Scottish Government could not ignore the need for "spending restraint for years to come".
Mr Brownlee added: "The SNP Government should be planning now on how to reduce spending with the minimum impact on front line services."
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