In a country where the year-old so-called government of national unity is on the verge of collapse, where rampant looting of the state’s remaining assets by Mugabe’s top aides continues unabated, where unemployment is running at 90%, and where ordinary Zimbabwean women cannot expect to live beyond 34, there is anger and cynicism about the aging oligarch’s birthday bash. Many believe no real change is possible until he dies.
Last year, the organisers of Mugabe’s 85th birthday party -- top officials of his ZANU-PF party -- demanded contributions from businessmen to pay for the 2000 bottles of champagne, 8000 lobsters, 100kgs of prawns, 4000 portions of caviar, 3000 ducks, 8000 packs of Ferrero Rocher chocolates and much more that were consumed at the feast. Similar demands,
topping more than US$300,000, have been made this time from businessmen who want to be favoured by ZANU-PF. Top bands from South Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will serenade the guests. It all resembles a celebration of continuing good times aboard the Titanic.
Among the other current “Zim birthdays” is the 10th of the implementation of President Mugabe’s so-called “land reform” programme, in which 4000 white commercial farmers were expelled from their land and their properties taken by top Mugabe supporters, including judges, ministers, senior civil servants and military officers. Mugabe and his wife Grace have occupied 12 of the most productive farms.
The land reform programme plunged the country into economic crisis and poverty for the overwhelming majority of Zimbabwe’s people. The farms, which before 2000 were the main foreign exchange earner, have largely become idle, reverting to bush, and acting as weekend barbecue retreats for the new owners who sold the farm equipment.
In the 10 years of “farm reform”, some one million black workers have been evicted from the farms by the new owners, according to a new report by the United Nations-backed Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, the leading international body monitoring conflict-induced internal refugee movements.
On paper the future looked bright for black farm workers in 2000.
“They [Mugabe and ZANU-PF officials] were promising to give us labourers good wages after removing these white farmers,” said Ms Rufaro, a former farm labourer.
But things quickly soured. Ms Rufaro, using an assumed name because she fears persecution by Mugabe’s draconian Central Intelligence Organisation, said ZANU-PF youths began mass assaults on farm labourers, raping women and beating men to death. They were thrown off the farms together with the white owners.
Farm workers such as Ms Rufaro and their representatives interviewed by IPS said takeovers of the remaining 300 downsized white farms have continued by ZANU-PF leaders since the government of national unity was formed with Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) a year ago. The MDC had won a general election, but Mugabe refused to accept the result and unleashed his followers against MDC supporters. After more than 200 MDC followers had been murdered, Mr Tsvangirai agreed to enter a unity government to prevent further killings. Mr Tsvangirai became prime minister in a power-sharing deal that is meant to lead to constitutional changes and new elections.
Tens of thousands of former farm workers now live in makeshift camps, often on the roadside beyond the farms from which they were evicted, eking out existence with emergency food handouts from foreign donors. “It is a shame for us,” said Ms Rufaro. “Most of our kids did not go to school for two years or more after we were evicted. We women ended up having kids at home without food, because we had no money.”
It was hoped by the unity government’s local and international supporters that the kind of disastrous consequences of Mugabe’s land reforms would be avoided by the new administration. But, after the relative optimism of the past year, the situation in Zimbabwe is deteriorating badly. Talks between ZANU-PF and the MDC have broken down, leaving the government of national unity as good as dead on its first birthday.
Many had wondered what Mugabe would turn to when there were few productive farms left to give to the small band of already rich people who maintain him in power. Some were convinced it would be the rich Marange diamond field in southeast Zimbabwe, from which small diggers have been expelled -- many dying in hails of bullets or from torture -- by the military. But the Marange diamonds are destined only for the real bigwigs. Something else needed to be found to keep the next layer of top officials on board.
After a year of MDC appeals, conferences and international seminars to try to attract investors back to Zimbabwe, everything was wasted in a single stroke last week that symbolises the breakdown of the unity government.
Without consulting the MDC coalition partner, Mugabe and his Indigenisation and Empowerment Minister, Saviour Kasukuwere, promulgated a new law obliging private companies to give black Zimbabweans 51% stakes in their companies -- or face five years in jail. Critics say it is like a suicide pill being fed to the economy; it is economic empowerment for the already rich while the massed poor get poorer.
The local labour movement, the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), which has seen jobs haemorrhage throughout the past decade, said the move plunged businesses that endured the lean years and potential new foreign investors into panic.
Daniel Ndlela, Zimbabwe’s most eminent regional economist, based in South Africa, said: “Why would anyone come into Zimbabwe with US$100 and be left with US$49? Those who might have invested in Zimbabwe will now never come.”
The ZCTU said in a statement: “There will be no creation of new wealth since the government will simply help itself to other people’s sweat and efforts. This could plunge the struggling industrial sector into chaos similar to that triggered by Robert Mugabe’s chaotic agrarian reforms in 2000.”
Mr Tsvangirai, commenting through his official spokesman, said the move will plunge the country back into the kind of decline and job losses “we saw as a result of the corrupt farm acquisition programme. And all for the sake of further enriching the political elite who have already acquired millions at the expense of the rest of the population”.
Tendai Biti, appointed finance minister by Mr Tsvangirai as part of the power-sharing deal, is internationally the most respected of the MDC leaders. He is widely seen as the successor, to Mr Tsvangirai. Speaking last week in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, Mr Biti said negotiators had failed “irredeemably” to resolve differences. “We are going nowhere on the dialogue. It is important for President Jacob Zuma and South Africa to step in and step in quickly.
“We as negotiators are wasting time because we have tried. We have been negotiating since May 14 2007 [before the unity government was formed on February 13 2009]. It should be taken out of our hands.”
Mr Biti, who is pressing for new elections, went on: “ZANU-PF cannot continue to urinate on us. They have no right to continue abusing the people of Zimbabwe. If there is an irretrievable breakdown then one must accept the reality of divorce.” Mr Biti said that the people of Zimbabwe want real change, not the cosmetic change offered by the government of national unity, with real power resting with Mugabe who controls the military and security services, the top law appointments and the Central Bank.
Mr Biti has been credited with the most concrete achievement of the government of national unity, boosting the economy 4% from a very low base by ditching the Zimbabwe dollar, which for 10 years had been printed at will by Mugabe’s corrupt Central Bank governor, Gideon Gono, triggering world record inflation that ran into trillions of percent.
The Biti faction in the MDC wants new elections, but hangs on in the unity government in an attempt to see through the year-old mandate of drafting a new constitution ahead of fresh elections. Few analysts doubt the MDC would win a fair election, putting support for ZANU-PF down to 20%.
Mr Biti restarted the economy by introducing the US dollar as the interim national currency and by arranging for teachers, doctors, nurses, soldiers and government officials to be paid monthly salaries of up to US$250. However, the dire situation of the rural and urban poor has not changed. And the lucky few are growing impatient with their meagre US dollar salaries. Civil servants and teachers are on strike saying they need US$700 a month for mere survival.
Mugabe is adamant he will not implement more of the unity government’s proposed measures until the European Union and the United States repeal “targeted economic measures” against him and some 200 of his top supporters. These restrictions prevent Mugabe and the other individuals from remitting their money into Western accounts or accessing money and other assets already lodged in those banks.
Many analysts believe Mugabe only entered the government of national unity in the hope that Mr Tsvangirai would be able to persuade the EU and US to retract the measures to encourage further reforms. But last week both the EU and the US renewed the measures for a further year, saying Mugabe and ZANU-PF had not engaged in real political transition.
But, in a signal that Western governments remain willing to reward the members of the government of national unity if it achieves real progress, the US, Britain and other International Monetary Fund member countries agreed unanimously last Friday in Washington DC to restore Zimbabwe’s voting rights after a seven-year suspension.
The IMF said, however, that Zimbabwe was not eligible for financial aid until it clears its arrears to the Fund and shows it has a plan to pay off arrears to the World Bank and African Development Bank. The arrears total about $1.3 billion.
Mr Biti, who was invited to the IMF meeting, said the US and Britain, key donors to the Fund, made strong statements of support for Zimbabwe but want to see more political and economic reforms. “It’s a major indicator that if we continue on the path of reform, we can achieve full reintegration and full support,” he said.
Mr Biti added that an IMF team will visit Zimbabwe early next month.
