ALMOST a year after Syria was plunged into violent and almost incomprehensible internecine conflict the world seems to have washed its hands of the problem after the Arab League observer mission admitted it had failed to make any headway.

Today in Cairo officials will make a last-ditch attempt to extend the terms and timetable but without a stronger mandate it is clear the mission has met a dead end. An extension is the most likely outcome but it will achieve little unless there is a new willingness to find a solution to stop the fighting and the killing.

During the mission's four-week stay in Syria, the violence has shown no sign of abating – in that time 454 civilians and 146 soldiers have been killed – and little attempt was made by the government of President Bashar al-Assad to grant full and free access to the 165-strong delegation. At least one monitor has already quit in disgust, branding the mission a "farce".

If anything, Assad is now in a stronger position than he was 10 months ago when his country spiralled into violence and the Syrian armed forces responded by shooting innocent civilians and turning the streets of cities like Homs and Deraa into battlefields. Getting accurate casualty figures is well-nigh impossible given the government's firm grip on the media but the UN estimates 5400 civilians and soldiers have been killed in the violence to date.

The intervention by the Arab League was seen as the last best hope for the country, and its failure will deeply affect those opposition leaders who have put their lives on the line. If any further proof were needed about their determination it was seen on Friday to the west of the capital, Damascus, where the town of Zabadani suddenly emerged as the centre of the protest movement. On one day alone, eight people were gunned down by government forces but Friday ended with tanks being withdrawn as the protestors took control.

So far that has been the recent history of the conflict – gains by protestors followed by crackdowns – and that explains the dismay felt by those who yearn for change. It also helps to explain why Assad's government will not be too concerned if the Arab League decide today to extend their mission. The truth is that the delegates have only seen what the Syrian government wants them to see. All official visits have been tightly controlled and protestors have been kept well away from official groups although it has to be said contact was made through social media outlets.

In an attempt to mollify critics such as Human Rights Watch, the Syrian government made token gestures such as releasing 4000 detainees. But Assad is only likely to bow to greater diplomatic or even military pressure. The Gulf state of Qatar has urged deployment of a peacekeeping force but that seems unlikely as Russia and China will veto any UN proposal to use force.

For the embattled protest movement this would have been their only chance to put pressure on Assad's government. As the first anniversary of their protests approaches they have argued for the imposition of a no-fly zone similar to that imposed to protect the Kurds before the Iraq war or the waging of a proxy war as happened recently in Libya. Neither is likely to happen without international consensus and that is unlikely to materialise soon.

It also has to be said that despite an export embargo damaging the oil-rich country's economy, Assad still retains substantial support from sections of the population, his armed forces and neighbouring Iran.