Five flashpoints to watch in the world this year

If the past 12 months revealed anything about the world we live in, it was how less controlled, ­unpredictable and volatile it now is.

That the zealotry, hatred and cruelty that fuelled such conflicts will continue in 2015 is, sadly, a given. Today's wars kill and displace more people, and are harder to end, than those in years past.

So it is we can expect to see many more innocents fleeing Syria and Iraq, more killing by Islamic State (IS) and other combatants across the Middle East as this year unfolds.

While largely arbitrary and far from definitive, what follows are five other global flashpoints I feel sure will make headlines in 2015.

LIBYA

If one place above all others looks set to deteriorate rapidly into all-out war, it is Libya.

While most eyes have been on Syria and Iraq, the political ­deadlock that has produced two rival legislatures in this North ­African state looks set to spill over into a full battlefield showdown.

Events unfolding in Libya are much more labyrinthine than a straightforward Islamists versus anti-Islamists struggle. ­Rivalries between militias and tribes, ­wrangles over oil and gas wealth, foreign powers jockeying for influence and fundamental differences on how to rebuild the political structure since the demise of the Gaddafi regime all play their part. Watch out for a possible military push on the capital Tripoli by the recently rebranded "Libyan National Army" (LNA) against the opposition "Libya Dawn", a self-described ­revolutionary coalition of militiamen and Islamist-leaning politicians that originated in the country's western city of Misrata.

"A ground invasion of the ­capital is imminent," insists General Khalifa Haftar, who now stands at the helm of the LNA. In the last few days the Libyan air force, allied with prime minister Abdullah ­al-Thinni's government, has launched numerous airstrikes on Misrata, hitting an air base, port and a steel factory. This is now make or break time in Libya, and the stakes for North Africa and the Sahel region as a whole are high indeed.

NIGERIA

Yesterday's kidnapping of 40 boys and young men from a remote village in northeast Nigeria in a raid, blamed on the Islamist group Boko Haram, is an ominous sign of things to come in Africa's most populous country. Boko Haram fighters have abducted hundreds of people in the past year; boys are recruited as fighters and girls as sex slaves. Its five-year-old uprising for an Islamic state is the gravest security threat to Africa's top economy.

Parents of 200 Nigerian girls kidnapped in April are ­appealing to the United Nations for help after losing hope that the Nigerian government will rescue them.

At the end of October, a man claiming to be Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau said in a video that the girls had been "married off" to Boko Haram commanders. While the group's brutal ­insurgency escalates, the worldwide drop in oil prices has weakened the ­Nigerian government. Add to this the combustible mix of fiercely contested elections next month that pitches president Goodluck Jonathan's ruling People's Democratic Party against the opposition coalition the All Progressives Congress, and the tinder is falling into place for an explosive round of instability. Watch for an escalation in ­political violence at state level during the election period matched by a rise in terrorist operations as Boko Haram move to exploit the ­uncertainty. Should the final election poll be disputed, widespread bloodshed could be the order of the day.

SOUTH SUDAN

I've made a few of visits to the world's youngest nation over the past 12 months and what I witnessed makes me fear for what lies ahead. It is now entering the second year of a brutal civil war, and more than 1.5 million people have been displaced. Some estimates suggest the war has already left as many as 50,000 dead and almost two million displaced. In the sprawling camps set up to provide sanctuary for these people, I listened to accounts of ethnically motivated atrocities by both Nuer and Dinka people and the battles that have raged between ­government forces and rebel groups.

War has permeated every aspect of Southern Sudanese life. People I met who should have been teachers, farmers, doctors, lawyers, mothers and fathers have instead become soldiers or had their lives turned upside down by conflict. This, too, before the threat of a famine towards which the country lurched last year, and where humanitarian organisations have faced considerable hostility. With the end of the rainy season last month there will now doubtless be more fighting, further hunger and displacement. South Sudan is among the world's gravest crises, though one might not realise it given the sparse response of the world's media to date.

YEMEN

Like other Middle East countries, Yemen saw the departure of a long-ruling autocrat in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. Right now a rebellion led by the Houthis, a political movement that draws key support from a prominent Shi'ite sect, has swept away the central government and opened what some warn may turn into a dangerous sectarian conflict between Shi'ite and Sunni militias, including units loyal to al-Qaeda.

Yemen has little track record of sectarian violence, but all that is changing. In September, the Houthis took over the capital Sanaa and agreed to a plan to appoint a new government. That, however, has failed to materialise and instead the Houthis have consolidated their territorial grip, pitching them against a political party that includes the Yemeni branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Watch for al-Qaeda upping its strikes against Houthi targets in the months ahead.

UKRAINE

We were only one day into 2015 when Ukraine reported its first military death in its conflict with pro-Russian separatists.

This time it was a soldier killed and five others wounded in attacks by the rebels. At face value, the signs might seem promising for some kind of progress if not resolution to this conflict, which has already killed more than 4700 people and provoked the worst crisis in relations between Russia and the West since the Cold War.

On the positive side, Ukrainian authorities and separatists exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war last week as part of a 12-point plan to end the conflict, and preparations are under way for Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko to meet Russia's Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany on January 15. However, all this will do little to reassure those civilians caught up in the frequent shelling and mortar attacks by separatists in areas of eastern Ukraine. While I was in Ukraine last year it was impossible to imagine how this conflict would spread in scale and intensity. Looking at pictures of the now ruined terminal building of Donetsk airport, through which I transited last April, is to understand the ferocity with which the fighting has engulfed this part of eastern Ukraine. Speaking now to ­Ukrainian contacts with whom I worked, most are far from ­optimistic that the current ­diplomatic moves or economic sanctions imposed on Moscow will bring much respite from the fighting. While the talk is of another frozen conflict on Europe's periphery, as Ukraine's bitter winter turns to spring, watch for an escalation in fighting on the ground, the political implications of which could be profound.

OTHERS TO WATCH

Other African nations also face tough times in 2015. On the second anniversary of a rebellion that plunged the Central African Republic into bloody upheaval, peace remains fragile, with many ­inter­national observers fearing it will not hold in 2015.

Somalia and Kenya too will doubtless see the emboldened presence of al-Shabaab, the Islamist group connected to al-Qaeda. The group has already upped its terror strikes both on Kenyan soil and in its Somalian base despite the recent killing of two of its intelligence chiefs.

Pakistan, towards the end of year, experienced its worst single terror attack when the Taliban attacked a school in the city of Peshawar. Though the government in ­Islamabad has intensified its efforts to confront the Taliban, there remains the real possibility of renewed attacks.

Later in 2015 we will see Burma holding its first free elections in 25 years. The question is: will they pass off peacefully and the country finally have a transparent, rights-respecting government from which ordinary citizens see real benefits?