He'll go ... the only question is when

Sunday 22 July 2012

THE endgame is now in sight for Syria's President Bashar al-Assad.

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by Trevor Royle Diplomatic Editor

It may not happen this week, it could even be in a few months' time, but it is difficult to see how the beleaguered leader can overcome the setbacks that have hit him. Yesterday there was further fierce fighting in the capital Damascus. Although the military successes enjoyed by the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) might have been anticipated, few could have foreseen the explosion of the bomb that killed four of the president's closest associates earlier in the week.

When Assad finally does go – the UN monitoring plan renewed on Friday is predicated on his departure – he will not be mourned. Having unleashed civil war on his people and having defied the international community for so long, he does not deserve much pity. Given the parlous nature of his personal position it is unthinkable that he has not already made arrangements for his exit strategy, with Moscow being the favoured place of exile. Within the diplomatic community rumours abound that he has already shifted his financial assets to the Russian capital, while other rumours claim his wife, Asma, has already abandoned her homeland.Assad's departure will see the latest of the Middle East's dictators getting their just desserts at the hands of a mob who have been on the receiving end of his misrule for far too long. It will probably not be as violent as the ends that met Saddam Hussein in Iraq or Muammar Gaddafi in Libya but the consequences will be similar. For the first time in almost half a century, Syria will have to confront a future without the leadership of the Assad family, and for the first time too they might be able to do that without the constant fear of interference by the military intelligence services, in this case the dreaded and omnipresent Shu'bat al-Mukhabarat al-Askariyya.In an ideal world, Assad's departure would pave the way for democratic elections that would bring together the country's disparate religious and tribal factions. Ruling Alawites would sit down with majority Sunnis and minority Christians and Kurds from the north to create a transitional government under a UN mandate, but given the violence that has been unleashed in the country this is unlikely to happen – at least in the short term.When the unrest began 17 months ago the rebels had clear demands. They wanted Assad to end military rule and to hold free and fair elections, they wanted reforms in the economy that would provide jobs and a fair wage, and they wanted to see an end to repression that had seen so many Syrians arrested without trial. At the time Assad prevaricated, unwilling to ease his grip on the reins of power, and despite fine words he resorted to the same kind of violence that had kept his father, Hafez al-Assad, in power between 1970 and 2000.It was always going to be a risky business, because political life had moved on in the Middle East and the events of the so-called "Arab Spring" had dared people to believe change was in the air. That feeling, plus the revolution brought about by social networking sites, meant people were no longer operating in a vacuum. Assad failed to recognise that when change swept through Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, he was next on the list.In vain, he attempted to paint the opposition rebels as terrorists backed by unnamed foreign powers. While it is true that jihadist fighters arrived on the scene in recent months to provide a religious flavour to the opposition, it is unlikely Syria will become an Islamic fundamentalist enclave. If the experience of Libya is anything to go by, any extremists will be contained by the democratic process. Besides, within the FSA are many moderate and ambitious leaders who opposed Assad but have their own dreams for the creation of an equally moderate and ambitious Syria. Within such a framework there will be a powerful incentive to retain Syria's secular traditions.The largest remaining problem is that the country is currently awash with weapons and ammunition. Bringing these under control and restoring a sense of normality will be the main challenge for anyone – from whatever background – who wants to take over from Assad and his cohorts.

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He'll go ... the only question is when

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