''Russia is not willing to be responsible for the bloodshed which is continuing there, and we will not play an active role in getting Assad out''

Sunday 1 July 2012

A world away from the violence that has besmirched Syria for more than a year, diplomats gathered in Geneva's Palace of Nations yesterday in a last-ditch attempt to find a peaceful solution to the increasingly bitter confrontation between opposition rebels and Syrian forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.

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ANALYSIS By Diplomatic Editor Trevor Royle

Although hopes had been high that the talks would result in delegates finding common ground, discussions stalled over Russian refusal to countenance an imposed solution. Russia, which sees Syria as a close ally, is resisting proposals that could exclude President Assad from a transitional unity government.

Before the talks started, Russia said there was a "very good chance" of finding common ground, but a US official said areas of "difficulty and difference" remained. UN envoy Kofi Annan warned that failure to agree at talks in Geneva on his peace plan for Syria could spark an international crisis. Annan, the former UN secretary-general who organised the emergency meeting, told the meeting history would judge harshly if there was no deal on ending the bloodshed.Throughout the talks, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov insisted Assad had to be part of the process. Moscow's intransigence put paid to any hopes the summit would provide a solution to the violence in Syria, which has already claimed an estimated 15,000 lives.The summit – by a select group of foreign ministers from the Western powers, Russia, Turkey, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar – spent yesterday discussing the implementation of a cease-fire plan that would see the creation of a national unity government to oversee the drafting of a new constitution and elections.In an attempt to present a united front ahead of the meeting, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had flown to Moscow on Friday in an attempt to persuade her Russian opposite number to sign up to the plan, and early indications were that she had made some headway. Over dinner following a gathering of Asia-Pacific foreign ministers, Clinton is reported to have pressed the point that the proposed government of national unity had to have full executive powers but would also have to exclude "those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardise stability and reconciliation." This was a clear reference to Assad.Although Clinton and Annan expressed their optimism about reaching "an acceptable result" it was clear even before the meeting began that there was still a long way to go before Lavrov was prepared to give ground. From the outset Russia has always opposed the removal of Assad from government, arguing that it smacks of regime change, and it now disputes any suggestion that the national unity government should include representatives of armed opposition groups. This could have been a stumbling block because the precise relationship between the various opposition groups remain unclear, according to Sergei A Karaganov, dean of the department of international economics and foreign affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. Without leadership at the top, he argues, the resulting vacuum could produce anarchy."Russia is not willing to be responsible for the bloodshed which is continuing there, and we will not play an active role in getting Assad out," he claims. "We are involved in the diplomatic process, but we are not involved in trying to solve the Syrian problem one way or another. Many of our experts believe it is unsolvable." That sense of despair underpinned much of the talking in Geneva yesterday, with many delegates arguing this was the last chance to bring an end to fighting that Assad now characterises as a civil war. There had also been considerable disquiet about the make-up of the conference. All the major western powers sent foreign ministerial teams but the main players in the Middle east were absent. Saudi Arabia and Iran were ignored because the former supports the opposition in Syria, while the latter is Assad's biggest backer.Iran's ambassador to the UN argued that the rest of the world was cutting off its nose to spite its face. "So if some powers do not want to benefit from this influence and constructive role, that's their problem," said Mohammad Khazaee in New York. "And this is another indication of their actually neglecting the realities on the ground." A plan is only as good as its implementation and even if it does prove possible to turn diplomatic protocols into action, there is no guarantee Assad will be prepared to accept the peace plan. Interviewed on Iranian television, he made it clear that he was not minded to accept an externally brokered solution even if it came from a "friendly" country – that is, Russia. Lest that be taken as a dog-in-the-manger response, some of the opposition groups have also said they will not participate in any transitional administration that includes Assad's government. As ever in this kind of situation, words are easy; it's the actions that bring difficulties.

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''Russia is not willing to be responsible for the bloodshed which is continuing there, and we will not play an active role in getting Assad out''

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