US ELECTIONS 2008:All the polls point towards a crushing victory for Barack Obama. But polls can be, and often are, wrong. Desperate to get a feel for how ordinary Americans will vote in this week�s presidential election, Andrew Purcell took a road trip across some of the states that will decide the next president of the USA

Barack Obama cannot lose. Living in New York, watching cable news and obsessively checking poll results has convinced me of this. But no matter how much evidence stacks up, the neighbours dare not say it out loud. Predicting a landslide from diverse, middle-class Brooklyn has been shown to be foolish. I resolved to take a road trip across states that matter. The plan was to pass through Pennsylvania, where John McCain hopes to overturn a slim Democratic majority, followed by Ohio, which has picked the winner in every post-war election, followed by Indiana, which always votes Republican but might not this year. I was accompanied by my wife, a Brazilian journalist filing reports for the nightly news. Our destination was Chicago, Obama's home town.

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Day one: Bethlehem, Pennsylvania
On our way to pick up the car, our Egyptian taxi driver had an Obama poster on his headrest. He wasn't worried about alienating customers. There were three people in the cab and none of us had the right to vote. In the Washington Post, Bush speechwriter David Frum had just thrown in the towel. "There are many ways to lose a presidential election," he wrote. "John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him."

McCain has had to defend North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana with resources that would otherwise have been spent on the attack. He has pulled out of Colorado, conceding that square of George Bush's winning patchwork, and now needs to capture a major Democratic state and hang on everywhere else. Michigan has been given up. Minnesota and Wisconsin are out of reach. Pennsylvania is the target. Senior adviser Mark Salter told reporters: "When we look at our numbers, we think we're competitive here."

Democrats win by running up huge margins in Philadelphia, padding them in Pittsburgh and holding their breath when the rural counties declare. McCain and Sarah Palin have visited every corner of the state, and spent more money on advertising here than anywhere else, in the belief that Obama's support among white working class voters is fragile.

Our first stop was Allentown, in the Lehigh Valley, where Hillary Clinton's crushing primary win suggested an opening for McCain. It was a perfect autumn day. Community activist Alan Jennings told us 2008 is already the area's worst year for repossessions. "We warned every policy-maker we could find that this was a pending disaster. It's therapeutic to say I told you so' but it doesn't save people's homes."

Signposts announced an open house every few blocks. We stopped at one that had been on the market for eight months. Mortgage broker Romulo Guzman insisted "the time to buy is now" but it sounded like wishful thinking. His employer, Countrywide Loans, was rescued by Bank Of America in January - a bad debt tremor that presaged the summer's subprime earthquake.

In South Bethlehem, a major new casino and shopping complex at the site of the old steelworks that once employed half the town has stalled. Shares in the company behind it, Las Vegas Sands, have lost 95% of their value in a year and crews working on the site were sent home last week.

At the Hallowe'en parade, Democrat activists were handing out Obama badges. Eric Hofsted, a registered independent, had taken one. Retired New Jersey fireman Daniel Decher told me: "Most of my life I voted Republican. I don't know how qualified Obama is but I will not vote Republican because these last eight years have been a disaster."

Rich Talijan, a mechanic, asked: "Why would Obama go into another country to run for president? I wouldn't go into Iraq and run for president." But he was born in America, I said. "That's what he says." His mother is from Kansas. "That's what he says. Why is his middle name Hussein? Why is he a Muslim?"

We stayed in the Hotel Bethlehem, where photographs in the hallways showed presidents Jack Kennedy and Jimmy Carter. Signs at the Obama office next door declared Firefighters For Obama, Steelworkers For Obama and so on. McCain hopes that in this town of Reagan Democrats, party affiliation is weaker at the ballot box than in the union hall.

Day two: Pottsville, Pennsylvania
Our next destination was a McCain rally in Pottsville, deep in rural Pennsylvania. On the way, we stopped at Ed's Sports Store in Tamaqua. There are plenty of hunting and fishing Democrats, but when it comes to electing a president, Ed follows the National Rifle Association line. "Look at Joe Biden, he's voted with every anti-gun bill that's been up."

There were two customers. Bob Thomas said: "I'd give up every gun I own to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq." Tom Mason was in camouflage after an early morning bow-hunt. "Guns, that's the least of my worries right now," he said. Both were worried about their pensions and ready to vote Obama.

At the campaign office in Pottsville, the list of people who had collected tickets that day was written on a single sheet of paper. Kendra Burke had just picked hers up. "I'm praying and praying along with everybody in my church, but I'm a little nervous at this point," she said. "I would hate to see Obama in there. I think he has a hidden agenda." She was laid off eight months ago and worried that a Democratic government would make things worse. "There's not a lot of jobs in this area and if you do find one, the salary's not worth the gas in your tank."

The rally was being held at a high school gym. Children, many of them unimpressed, had been drafted to plump the audience. As a pretty, young country singer rehearsed God Bless America, a teacher explained that "once you sit down, you can't leave until the end". A few of the sassiest pre-teens taunted the party faithful with chants of "O-ba-ma" as they crossed the car park.

Moderates and independents rarely stand at the front of the queue. "We cannot raise the white flag in Iraq," said Laurie Nush. I asked if she was afraid of Obama. "Yes! He's dangerous." A woman calling herself Joe the Housewife told me: "I don't want socialism to take over. He won't take the pledge of allegiance." As her friends joined in, it became a chorus. "He burns the flag He wants to change our national anthem he wants to get rid of the constitution he's got all these Islamic friends."

McCain's warm-up music was the Rocky theme. He accused Obama of taking victory for granted and writing his first presidential speech. "I want him to save that manuscript of his inaugural address and donate it to the Smithsonian so they can put it right next to the Chicago paper that said Dewey Defeats Truman.'" When a candidate invokes  the miracle comeback of 1948 you know he's in serious trouble.

Day three: Youngstown, Ohio
Ohio has been a key component of Republican dominance but there are indications it is vulnerable. Senator Sherrod Brown won his seat two years ago with an anti-Iraq war, anti-free trade campaign. Democratic governor Ted Strickland was elected in the same cycle. Since 2004, Democrats have registered more than twice as many new voters as Republicans, adding a million people to their list.

Youngstown is a union stronghold, blue since Roosevelt, but none of the workers we met was confident Obama would win. People are too socially conservative and too racist, they said. Bill Booth, an organiser with the International Brotherhood Of Electricians, admitted some of his members were resistant to the idea of a black president. "I have encountered that race issue, but when we sit down with people and tell them he's the candidate of the middle class, they usually get over it."

McCain has been courting voters with the help of Joe the Plumber, a declared everyman from Toledo who said Obama's tax plan would prevent him buying a business. On a job with the Plumbers & Pipefitters local, his name provoked nothing but ridicule. "That's special. The guy's not even a plumber," said Frank Siesinger. "We're making $60,000 and trying to send our kids to college."

A belief that the working man prospers under Democratic administrations usually comes with the union card but Paul Zureval had fixed a McCain-Palin sign to the plasterboard with blue electrical tape. "I've been taking a lot of abuse," he said. "It's not that I agree with everything Bush has done, nor McCain, but as a Christian I believe in pro-life so I have to support that.

"It's a lot closer than the polls indicate. There's a lot of people who, when they go behind that curtain, are gonna vote for who they want to." His mate looked up from his work, tore down the McCain poster and replaced it with one that read "Real Joe The Plumbers Support Barack Obama".

Day four: Findlay, Ohio
Findlay's official nickname is Flag City, USA. When Palin mentioned "pro-America" areas of the country, this is the kind of place she was meaning. In the last election, Bush won 70% of Hancock County's votes. A recent Washington Post report found racist attitudes as commonplace as a Stars And Stripes in the front yard.

On the day we arrived, Palin was speaking at Bowling Green State University. She had attracted a much bigger crowd and a louder counter demonstration than McCain. Country singer Aaron Tippin performed his opportunistic hit Drill Here, Drill Now. I looked around for a non-white face and couldn't find one.

She began with a disclaimer. "It is not mean-spirited, it is not negative campaigning to call someone out on their record or associations," she said. That over with, she tore into Obama for consorting with Palestinian terrorists. The crowd booed Rashid Khalidi, Bill Ayers, Nancy Pelosi and the LA Times.

Her economic message was a simple promise to lower taxes. "Barack Obama calls it spreading the wealth around. Joe Biden thinks paying more taxes is patriotic. Some people have called it socialism," she said. "Now is not the time to experiment with that." By this point, Joe the Plumber had joined her on stage.

Findlay's old soldiers were out in force. Jim Gerard, a navy veteran, told me: "I'm voting for the hero instead of the zero." Ken Mower said: "God help America if Obama's elected." All agreed that the shame of withdrawal from Vietnam must not be repeated in Iraq.

Ohio is offering early voting for the first time. More than 10,000 people in Hancock County have already cast their ballots. At the busy polling station, a man who didn't want to be named told us a robocall smearing Obama had changed his mind. "I am a registered Republican who will be voting Democratic for the first time," he said. "They spend their whole time attacking him and never talk about what they're going to do for the country."

Clinton supporter Kay Gelbaugh said: "If McCain was the same man he was eight years ago I would have voted for him, but he's not. The advertisements on TV are disgusting." Her husband Dick cancelled out her vote. "I believe Barack's gonna be in so far over his head, he'll have to look up to see bottom."

Economic crisis is nothing new in Ohio, but the past few years have been especially grim. Earlier this month Chrysler cut 1825 jobs, half of them at its Toledo plant. Last week the largest single employer in Findlay, Cooper Tire & Rubber, announced that one of its four US factories will have to close.

Steelworkers union shop steward Rod Nelson told us: "In the past four years we have lost 350,000 good paying manufacturing jobs in Ohio. What George Bush has done to this country outweighs the moral issues people have voted in the past. God, guns and gays is how they do it, but the economy is too bad this time."

Day five Battle Ground, Indiana
Of all the states that Obama's aggressive registration drive and limitless advertising money have put into play, Indiana is among the most startling. The only Democrat to win here in the past 80 years was Lyndon Johnson. Leading local Republican Kevin Ober declined campaign assistance, telling Time magazine: "We want the party to put resources in the true battleground states. The polls are already showing us ahead."

In the 2006 midterms, voters kicked three Republican incumbents out of office. But it is a shock to find Democrats actively campaigning, let alone threatening to win the state's electoral college votes.

Battle Ground is a tiny town at the site of a decisive encounter in the Indian wars. Farmers here raise corn and soybeans. Despite McCain's resistance to ethanol subsidies, the men we interviewed said they would be voting for him. "There's a lot of people that like Obama," Lynn Teel said. "People want change. They'd better stop and think is change going to be good or bad?'"

Dale Lehe held out little hope of a Republican victory. "The last year or so times have been especially tough and most people just want something different, regardless of what it is," he said. "

The owner of Two Cookin' Sisters cafe told us a Democratic administration would mean more people claiming welfare, because there would be no incentive to work. She feared America "turning into a socialist type country."

This libertarian, self-sufficient streak and general mistrust of government is a powerful force in US politics and by harnessing it to religious conservatism, Republicans created a coalition that was exceedingly difficult for Democrats to beat. But after eight years of wasteful government, a fissure has appeared in Karl Rove's permanent majority between populist, anti-intellectual believers and old-fashioned fiscal conservatives.

Palin's selection exacerbated this by energising one group and alienating the other. In the week we spent on the road, we met very few moderate, independent McCain supporters. The inescapable impression is that Republicans have lost the centre.

One in seven of the voters who responded to the latest Associated Press poll said they were still undecided, so, in theory, McCain could scrape home in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. But in a moment of crisis, it seems far more likely that when offered a straightforward "with us or against us" choice by Republicans, this time the majority of Americans in swing states will pick the other side.