Up to one-quarter of liquor licence holders in some cities may be throwing in the towel rather than entering Scotland�s incoming licensing system, new figures show.

Up to one-quarter of liquor licence holders in some cities may be throwing in the towel rather than entering Scotland's incoming licensing system, new figures show.

According to research collated from licensing boards in 29 of Scotland's 32 local authorities, some 585 licensed premises out of a total of 3522 which should have lodged applications by the March deadline did not.

The figures represent nearly one in six (16.6%) of the expected total.

The Shetland Licensing Board recorded the lowest number of applications with only 36.8% of existing premises doing so, followed by Midlothian with 64.3% and the Angus Licensing Board where 65.3% were lodged.

On the other end of the scale, the Western Isles Licensing Board indicated all 18 of the licensed premises within its area submitted applications, followed by Glasgow with 94.4% and South Lanarkshire with 93.7%.

In Aberdeen, 17.5% of existing licence holders did not apply to enter the new regime, in Edinburgh the figure was 20.6% and in Dundee it was 25%.

In Aberdeen, of the 22 premises that did not submit applications in the first tranche, 12 had ceased trading, two decided not to continue to sell alcohol, and one is now excluded from holding a liquor licence because it is a petrol station.

The figures, obtained by the Scottish Beer and Pub Association (SBPA), members of which operate 1500 of Scotland's 5200 pubs and which represents most of the country's major brewers and drinks companies, are being viewed as the first concrete indication of how many licence holders may be quitting the business.

However, some industry analysts have cast doubt on whether the figures are as dramatic as they may initially suggest.

Some of it may be accounted for by anything from florists with licences to sell champagne with bouquets to guest houses with permission to sell wine to guests declining to enter the new system.

They may also reflect premises that have shut any time in the previous three years (the duration of most alcohol licences) and are therefore not seeking another or licensees who simply failed to lodge the paperwork on time.

Businesses can still lodge applications for consideration with the last tranche of applications in early-2009 but those who missed the March deadline lose limited "grandfather rights", the ability to trade as they had been under the outgoing legislation and could be culled when licensing boards take "over-provision" into account next year.

Patrick Browne, chief executive of the SBPA, said: "These figures show just how mixed the performance is across Scotland with even boards of comparable sizes recording major differences in the proportions of applications submitted.

"The figures also begin to give an insight into how many licensed premises have already ceased trading or intend not to renew their licences.

"Whilst it is difficult to extrapolate from a relatively small sample, if the Aberdeen pattern was repeated across the whole of Scotland then as many as one in eight of Scotland's 17,000 commercially licensed premises will either have ceased trading or will do so after licensing transition."