Drop in American holidaymakers expected to be filled by Europeans.
By Peter John Meiklem

THE Scottish tourism industry believes the weak euro and strong pound will help it fare better than its European rivals this summer, despite the threat from the credit crunch.

Although Scottish operators admit that the number of American visitors may drop as a result of the deteriorating world economy, they say that all indicators are still pointing towards a successful summer season.

They are confident that the weak pound will help them to attract more than the usual number of visitors from Ireland and other European countries to offset any American fall-off.

This is in contrast to Ireland, where the industry is expecting its worst season since the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York. The Irish Tourism Industry Confederation's chairman Dick Bourke was last week quoted as saying that growth was predicted to fall from 15% in 2007 to 4% or 5% in 2008. He said the strength of the euro would be a "huge issue".

Iain Herbert, chairman of the Scottish Tourism Forum, which represents the tourist operators, said Scotland would not be as badly affected by a drop in American tourists as Ireland.

He said: "The industry is very focused on growth and, although there may be more challenging times ahead, the Scottish tourism industry - with its focus on a very high-quality product - is well placed to deal with them."

Herbert said an increase in the number of tourists from Ireland and other European countries would play a leading role. "The growth in the Scottish market is going to come from countries within Europe, and that includes Ireland. From that point of view things bode quite well," he said.

He stopped short of estimating industry growth for the year, however. According to the latest figures from VisitScotland, tourist expenditure grew 16% over 2006 (last year's numbers are not yet available). Alastair McIntosh, managing director of the Scottish Whisky Experience in Edinburgh's Royal Mile, said all the indicators pointed towards another good summer. He said his visitor numbers over the Easter weekend had been up 12% on the previous year.

He said the Irish industry's woes could be Scotland's gain. "If the Irish are saying that their growth is set to fall then we are delighted. The Irish are in the euro and for Americans that makes Ireland an expensive place to be. In Scotland, we can benefit," he said.

Robbie Bremner, director of the Loch Ness Exhibition Centre, said Scotland was well placed to compete with Ireland. He said visitor numbers were up 8% over January and February, and forward bookings were also "looking good".

"Hopefully people will choose Scotland over Ireland because of the price issue. VisitScotland has begun to do some really good marketing across Europe and I think we could be seeing the benefits of that," he said.

Robin Worsnop, from tour operator Rabbie's Trail Burners, said its prediction for the summer was more "mixed". He said he was optimistic but added: "We are still expecting a drop from American visitors and an increase in the number of tourists from Europe."

Philip Riddle, chief executive of VisitScotland, said the current economic situation in the UK, Europe and the USA, "may have a short term impact on tourism".

He said: "Scotland is fortunate to have a spread of visitors from many international and emerging markets. This means that if we see increases or dips in visitor numbers or spend from a certain country, it should not have a significant long-term effect on our industry.

He believed that attracting tourists from Ireland would not be a major issue. "While we may attract some business from other destinations it is not likely to be significant," he said.

A spokeswoman from Failte Ireland, the Irish Tourist Board, said it does not believe the Irish tourist industry is heading for a bad summer. She insisted the Irish industry would continue to grow.