Vladimir Putin will today convene an emergency meeting of his top military and security chiefs to discuss the fall-out from the downing of the Malaysian Airways plane by pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Judging by his most recent public statements on the matter, he is in a foul mood, and may well haul some of those attending over the coals. For it is they, the men who have secretly supported, trained and armed the separatists, who have landed Mr Putin with one of the biggest challenges of his presidency.
There is no doubt he supports the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine (and in other countries neighbouring Russia). But it is less certain that he supports the undisciplined, hot-headed gangsters who have been seen obstructing the MH17 recovery operation. He has never given wholehearted support to these self-proclaimed leaders of the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic", nor to their wish to separate from Ukraine. On the contrary, he called on them to postpone their independence referendum in May and, when they went ahead anyway, he refused to endorse the results.
There is every sign he is appalled by the fact the rebels, acting in the name of a cause he supports and armed by his own security services, have turned out to be so incompetent as to bring down a civilian airliner, apparently mistaking it for a Ukrainian transport plane. If, as seems likely, an international inquiry proves they fired the deadly missile, the tracks will lead back to the Kremlin, putting Mr Putin in a hugely embarrassing position.
He cannot possibly defend the rebels' action and will doubtless try to distance himself from them. His covert forces have been busy eliminating the traces, removing the Buk missile system back into Russia and out of reach of investigators. Covering up the traces of a crime is despicable. But if Mr Putin is forced to disown the rebels, this might at least afford an opportunity for the West to re-engage the Russian leader in the process of bringing peace to Ukraine. David Cameron, while threatening tougher sanctions, recognised at the weekend there must be protections for Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine.
This might be the key. If Mr Putin is looking for a way to save face, the West might be able to persuade him to kick the separatists (who, he has discovered, are a liability) out of the Donetsk region, and to help bring it back under Kiev's control, on the promise there will be immediate and meaningful negotiations on a federal system in Ukraine that would guarantee Russian rights.
Ukraine's leaders would doubtless dismiss such a suggestion, for two reasons. It effectively lets Mr Putin off the hook for a crime in which Russia seems to be complicit. And it amounts to giving Russia a say in how Ukraine is run. But the alternative is surely worse: a continuation of the civil war, and the constant danger of a repeat of the catastrophe of MH17.
The Russians of eastern Ukraine have rights. They may be fighting for them in utterly the wrong way but conceding a federal constitution that preserves Ukraine's territorial integrity seems a small price to pay if it brings peace.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article