WE HAVE no idea what the oil price will be by the end of the month, far less the end of the year or the decade. The trouble is that Scottish Ministers and George Osborne do not know either. One leading shale oil expert is already saying that the Saudis have won the price war and “the party is over” for that sector in the US.

Could this mean oil prices back to $80 by Christmas, as some have claimed? Or will the Saudi stranglehold continue to wreak havoc on both North Sea prospects and those supporting fracking in the UK?

All are possible scenarios and The Herald has consistently called for a balanced energy policy. If oil prices remain low, which remains in the gift of a Saudi-led cartel, then that is bad news for Scotland. If the prospects for shale oil diminish that has implications for the fracking debate. In short, we are in an uncertain world but we knew that.

Energy Minister Fergus Ewing spoke at Holyrood yesterday of “a shared determination within the industry to collaborate and overcome the challenges currently besetting the industry, which have been exacerbated by the low global oil price”.

He placed some faith in rising production projections, but said more needed to be done by both industry and government. Scotland is simply not in control of a game that may have serious consequences. As an industry analyst put it, decommissioning could create a domino effect, shutting down the North Sea as those who remain face the higher cost of maintaining the network. Some would argue it did not have to be this way. As another analyst, Colin Chilcoat, pointed out: “Norway is equipped with a bag of tools and policy levers more than capable of combating the current oil price downturn.

“Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, a monster of a rainy day fund valued at over $880 billion, is, to put it lightly, more than adequate should the nation need to fill a budget hole. Early indications suggest next year’s budget features corporation tax cuts, increased spending, and a surplus.”

Neither Scotland nor the UK has such a fund. So we are where we are; not, Norway-style, where some would have wished us to be. So we can safely stop shedding crocodile tears and proceed with tackling the tough stuff.

The UK Government must get on with easing the tax regime to prevent the industry disappearing for good. The Scottish Government has to come to terms with the fact that it is not Oslo and admit that we would start any brave new world after a second referendum in a different place with regard to vital revenues. Falling oil prices have implications for fracking, particularly in Scotland. Fracking has potential but we must be certain it is secure on safety and environmental grounds. The debate has gone off the boil somewhat because of the oil price but it cannot be ignored.

A timely reminder of the role of renewables in the energy mix has been provided by tidal energy firm Atlantis Resources to make Edinburgh its corporate headquarters; a move that should be welcomed.