From his farmhouse in Gascony, the one he once registered as his main residence while claiming £16,000 in parliamentary allowances, Lord Lawson sends word. The octogenarian will become president of Conservatives for Britain and lead the retreat, so he hopes, from the European Union.

This is not because the former Chancellor is averse to Europe. Mais non, as locals say. As he told the BBC, his attachment to his place in France surely proves otherwise. Lord Lawson merely thinks that David Cameron’s efforts to secure EU reforms will produce only “wafer-thin” results.

Because they fear precisely the opposite, and because they think Mr Cameron might get away with diluting workers’ rights, some trade union leaders are heading in the same direction. The irony will keep. The recent Trades Union Congress voted for a motion asserting that if the EU is redesigned to Tory specifications, pressure on them to support withdrawal would “intensify dramatically”.

A strange, inadvertent coming together says a lot, one way or another, about attitudes towards the European project. The TUC is close to reverting to a traditional scepticism towards an EU constructed, runs the argument, to suit corporate interests. Lord Lawson is aligning himself with the free-trading splendid isolationists who detect a superstate in every pronouncement from “Brussels”. Their aims are different; the result would be the same.

Conservatives gathering at the Manchester Central “Convention Complex” tomorrow will meanwhile give their favourite grievance another airing. Lord Lawson will certainly prove appealing. Some might even flirt with the rival, Ukip-dominated Leave.EU campaign. A UK withdrawal from the EU, “Brexit” as it is known, is these days the heart’s desire at the Tory grassroots.

And beyond. There is Ukip, of course, and Nigel Farage, a figure reinvigorated after his failure to win South Thanet at the General Election. His promise to quit after that setback was forgotten within hours. Now we hear he could resign from Ukip itself in order, Moses-like, to “lead Britain out of Europe”.

Whether Arron Banks, party donor and provider of the Leave.EU bankroll, is correct in his claim remains to be seen. What isn’t in doubt is that Mr Farage knows where the action is. He has built a career on the demand for EU withdrawal. Ukip attracted 3.8 million votes in May by managing to fuse the words “Europe” and “immigration”. Now a YouGov poll reveals a majority in support of withdrawal. Mr Farage no doubt believes his moment has come.

The survey shows just a two point margin in favour of withdrawal and is contradicted, in any case, by a Survation poll conducted last month giving the “in” camp a four point advantage. But YouGov has found evidence of movement. This is the first poll since June showing majority support for withdrawal. Equally, the “out” figure has increased by six per cent in that period.

There are nuances. As both Mr Cameron and Lord Lawson could guess, only one third of Tory voters want to stay in the EU, while 51 per cent would quit. Irrespective of the TUC and Jeremy Corbyn’s ambivalence, meanwhile, 77 per cent of the Labour “selectorate” would stay in. Conservative Party members, in predictable contrast, back withdrawal by 56 per cent to 34 per cent.

For Tories or the Tory-inclined, everything changes if Mr Cameron can claim success for his reform campaign. In that event, 56 per cent of voters and members would elect to continue with EU membership. But with 29 per cent of Tory voters still set on withdrawal, with the referendum campaign yet to begin, and with Ukip polling at around 17 per cent generally, the Prime Minister shouldn’t count his poulets.

For one thing, there is no guarantee his fellow heads of government will grant him his reforms. Lord Lawson is talking about treaty changes: that will not thrill those whose constitutions require referendums before a treaty is rewritten. Several are meanwhile heartily tired of British demands and British grumbling. Mr Cameron has promised a vote within two years, but France and Germany both have elections due in 2017. And what if apparent reforms are indeed “wafer thin”?

A lot can still happen. What is almost certain to go on happening is a refugee crisis with Syria and Iraq at its heart. The movement in the YouGov poll has coincided with a summer of horror stories and processions of desperate people. The EU has failed utterly, as a collective, to rise to the challenge. It seems obvious that for some of those surveyed this is reason enough to shut out Europe and “migrants”. Tears over individual tragedies have provided the excuse, strange as it sounds.

Mr Farage understands this and exploits it relentlessly. As we reported yesterday, he makes his view of the referendum perfectly clear: “Whilst arguments on the economy, trade and cost are of course important, it is clear that EU open borders are of more of a concern to the British people than ever before.”

Anyone who thinks “arguments on the economy” are not actually that important to the Ukip leader wouldn’t be far wrong. If he can, he will turn the European referendum into a fight over immigration. Plenty of Tories will warm to that, along with a few “pragmatic” Labour sorts. The TUC, and the wavering Mr Corbyn, might bear it in mind. The campaign for withdrawal is as likely to define a British attitude towards the world as alter a relationship with the EU.

The spectacle of ill-concealed xenophobia is depressing enough. The habit of treating “EU” as a shorthand for “foreigners” is a dismal judgement on parochial British life and politics. It speaks of a moral failure. But the campaign for withdrawal, or against what Mr Farage calls “open borders”, risks leading the UK into a historic failure on purely economic grounds.

Why has Germany shown refugees a welcome? In part, no doubt, it is because the people and their Chancellor, Angela Merkel, recognise a humanitarian obligation and feel the weight of history. But Germany and its leader are also pragmatists. For Europe’s dominant economy to continue to thrive, it needs migrants in large numbers. Ms Merkel has even been accused of “creaming off” the best-qualified Syrian refugees.

Germany has a low birthrate and an ageing population. Britain does better on both counts, but the issue is the same. Germany also recognises that young, educated people willing to risk all to make a life in the west have a great deal going for them.

It will not be easy, or cheap, for Germany to absorb refugees at the present rate, but the country needs 1.5 million skilled migrants just to underpin its state pension system. As things stand, 6.6 million foreign passport holders in Germany generated a surplus, taxes paid over benefits received, of 22 billion euros in 2012.

How often are such arguments made or accepted in these islands? When does the din over “fake” asylum seekers or a refugee “swarm” ever cease? At what point is even economic self-interest discarded?

If you can’t already guess, you are about to find out. You might also discover what remains of proud and aloof Britain should England vote for withdrawal and Scotland chooses a European future.