It is sobering to read the information about the continuing decline in the price of Brent crude, which has reached a new seven-year low at below $39 a barrel (" Grim warning for North sea jobs as oil price falls again", The Herald, December 12). Moreover, Russia, Europe’s largest producer, has indicated that oil prices will be within $40 and $60 for the next five to seven years.
It is interesting to compare that reality with the estimates of future oil and gas receipts in the SNP’s Scotland’s Future, produced in advance of the referendum in September last year.
Under a scenario described therein, the SNP forecast that Scottish oil and gas receipts would generate £6.8 billion in tax revenue in 2016/17. Even with that level of tax revenue, the SNP stated that Scotland would inherit "a challenging fiscal position". Events have shown the SNP estimates of tax revenue to have been wildly inaccurate.
If the SNP had realised its ambition in the referendum, many of us would be viewing the proposed independence day of March 24, 2016 with no little trepidation and are now regarding the No vote as facilitating something of a "great escape". The "greatness" of that escape may be called into question once we see the SNP proposals for the Scottish rate of income tax due to come into effect from April of next year.
Ian W Thomson,
38 Kirkintilloch Road,
Lenzie.
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