THERE hasn’t been so much rowing back since Katherine Grainger retired in 2012 but the “highly likely” second independence referendum looks further away with every passing day.

Former Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill urged restraint in yesterday’s Herald, writing that “Glorious defeat would put the dream back catastrophically, even if some enjoyed the journey,” which is significant on two counts: first, open acceptance of the possibility of defeat is in contrast to the public confidence of the first campaign and, secondly, his advice that “Wiser counsel must prevail” is a clear put-down of his old boss Alex Salmond who has been leading the charge (a vain Highland one, according to Mr MacAskill) for an acceleration.

Mr MacAskill’s main purpose was not just to hold back the clansmen but to back up First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s assertion in the Sunday Herald that the “case for full self-government ultimately transcends the issues of Brexit, of oil, of national wealth and balance sheets and of passing political fads and trends”.

Sensible Unionists have not expressed faux outrage, as Mr MacAskill claims, but welcome the confirmation of what we have always known: that independence does not guarantee increased prosperity as suggested by the fantasy economics of the 2014 Scotland’s Future prospectus, and that a vote for the SNP is always an endorsement of independence.

Independence defined simply as having all decisions affecting Scotland made in Scotland by people living here is a legitimate argument, even if it ignores the fact that Scots do have a say in decisions taken at Westminster and enthusiasm for Europe means big decisions being taken in Brussels, not Edinburgh. But no longer being ignored is the truth that independence is no universal panacea.

When SNP MP George Kerevan argued in July that an independent Scotland would need its own currency and faces tough spending choices, it was unclear if he was off message or part of a new strategy. Everything now points to the latter and, after years of tooth-fairy promises, SNP strategists understand the need to level with us, even if they accept it could take time for this new ideological purity to win over a majority of voters.

In light of the EU vote, Mr MacAskill correctly argues the case for independence cannot be properly made when no-one knows exactly from what Scotland would be separating and, earlier in the week, SNP MSP Joan McAlpine told a constitutional conference: “Everything the First Minister has said so far suggests that an independence referendum is very much on the back burner.”

But the back burner can still mean ready to eat. While the 2015 manifesto claimed independence was “not what this election is about”, even before the Brexit vote the 2016 programme committed to “new work with the aim of persuading a clear majority of people that independence is the best future for our country”.

Support for independence and nationalism are not necessarily the same thing and many who do not consider themselves Nationalists are prepared to listen to the arguments but the nuances are being removed from the debate and SNP tactics are adjusting in advance of the probable annihilation of what’s left of Labour at the next General Election.

Mr MacAskill has helpfully emphasised how pivotal a Conservative majority at the next General Election is for the SNP's thinking but framing the UK vote as a binary choice is far from risk-free for his party. Out campaigning at the weekend against a second independence referendum, it’s fair to say the majority of folk down Murrayfield way were in agreement. Admittedly, this part of Edinburgh is hardly a hotbed of nationalism and Ruth Davidson won the Holyrood seat outright. Nonetheless, support for a second independence referendum was thin on the ground.

While a steady stream of people happily signed the Scottish Tories’ petition, only a handful expressed disapproval. “Can’t come soon enough as far as I’m concerned,” said one of the few dissenters, who now looks like he’ll have a bit of a wait. Another, in what sounded like a thick Dublin accent, laughed that Ireland needed to be freed first. Enda Kenny should be told.

To borrow a word from the First Minister, the approval ratings show that Ruth Davidson is a politician who transcends old political dividing lines and, by keeping open the promise of another referendum, the SNP is giving non-Conservative Unionists a real reason to rally round her flag. Not someone lacking in conceit, Mr MacAskill has generously proffered another: “The nonsense of divisiveness comes from those opposed to or fearful of another,” he wrote. That’ll be more than half of us, Kenny. Not divisive at all …

John McLellan is a former communications director with the Scottish Conservatives.