ANALYSIS of recent council by-election results by polling expert John Curtice paints a bleak picture for Scottish Labour with regard to its prospects in next year’s local elections. But the implications are significant for all the main parties.
Any predictions must come with a health warning. It is dangerous to read too much into past results, especially mid-term ones, which can sometimes be misleading.
But the pattern for Labour is alarming in the extreme. It faces falling to third place in local government as it has at Holyrood and losing once-unbreachable bastions such as Glasgow. What can the party do? Scottish supporters do not seem persuaded by Jeremy Corby. Party members in Scotland were the only ones in the UK not to give him majority backing in the recent leadership election.
That might be partly because the more radical left-wing element of its support, ascendant in Labour elsewhere, is exiled from the party. That is the interpretation of Corbyn ally Paul Mason, who has called for Labour to sack Kezia Dugdale, back a second independence referendum and reach out to would-be supporters “trapped” in the Greens, Rise or within the SNP.
But embracing a second referendum would risk alienating voters who have stayed with the party. Instead, Scottish Labour needs to avoid internal dissent and concentrate on the fundamentals, presenting the electorate with distinctive policies, and ensuring supporters turn out to vote.
The projections for the likely impact on Labour are good news for the Scottish Conservatives, of course, already the second party at Holyrood and with the possibility of pushing Labour into third place in the popular vote next May.
Meanwhile, the SNP could win an outright majority in as many as 12 councils and become the largest party on nearly as many, including Glasgow, where Labour has at present a single-member majority.
But the party may have need to be careful what it wishes for as it anticipates taking over former Labour municipal heartlands.
At present the Scottish Government can usefully blame local authorities for failing to deliver key policies.
Councils such as Glasgow in turn have been able to blame the SNP Government for inadequately resourcing them to do what is required. Some councils have certainly appeared to be politically resistant to implementing government policy.
Such differences will take on a different hue if local and national administrations are increasingly aligned. Meanwhile, SNP policies that diminish the role of local councils – from control of schools to childcare to the integrated boards running health and social care – could provoke more internal division than the SNP has been used to.
That may also come with Westminster boundary changes, which are set to pit leading MPs against each other for a reduced number of seats.
Sweeping local election success is never unwelcome for the winner, of course, but, should Mr Curtice’s predictions be on target, the SNP could face a need rapidly to mature as a party, with much riding on how it copes with the challenge.
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