WOULD the UK Government block the Section 30 order needed to allow the Scottish Government to hold a second independence referendum?
Theresa May has yet to answer this question unequivocally, although Number 10 has been briefing that, despite publishing its draft referendum bill, the Scottish Government has no mandate to hold one.
Nicola Sturgeon appears to believe it is inconceivable a Section 30 order would not be granted by Mrs May, as one had been by her predecessor David Cameron. She might be right. A significant proportion of Scots feel the issue should have been settled by the 2014 poll but an appetite for putting the question again has risen since the Brexit vote.
Should there be sufficient clamour for a second referendum, then it is hard to imagine the UK Government refusing to allow a further vote or grant the outcome recognition. In regard to a mandate, the position is clear. The SNP stood on a manifesto pledge to hold a further referendum if circumstances changed. An EU exit against Scotland’s will was given as a specific example of the kind of change in circumstances that would trigger such action.
The party won the election, albeit without an overall majority. The First Minister has a mandate and, assuming she can (with the support, most likely, of the Scottish Greens) push a bill through Parliament, that would be confirmed. Of course, there may be no second referendum; all this bill does is ensure the Scottish Government is prepared. It might be that the outcome of the UK Government’s Brexit talks is so positive that a referendum is not felt necessary. The UK Government might give Ms Sturgeon the powers she seeks over immigration and doing trade deals with other countries.
The possible outcomes are many but should the First Minister decide to call another vote, its timing will be a major challenge.
Scotland risks being halfway out of Europe before a referendum can be concluded. Still, the SNP will not want to risk appearing precipitate by seeking independence too soon and may have much to lose.
Many No voters last time voted that way because of unanswered questions about the future. If another referendum is to be held, this should only happen once we know the results of Brexit negotiations. The Scottish Government’s bill contains few surprises. The terms of any referendum are likely to be broadly similar to those of the previous one, including a similar question and rules about conduct and the counting of votes. The continuation of the extension of voting to 16 and 17-year-olds is particularly welcome. Should it happen, Scotland can look forward to the same level of vigorous democratic engagement provoked by the 2014 campaign.
If and when a second independence referendum is called, it is important to be clear that this would not be a referendum on Brexit itself but on whether Scotland’s interests would be best pursued within the Union or within the EU. Neither choice may be wholly palatable but, while we may have a choice between the two, we can no longer remain in both.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel