WOULD the UK Government block the Section 30 order needed to allow the Scottish Government to hold a second independence referendum?

Theresa May has yet to answer this question unequivocally, although Number 10 has been briefing that, despite publishing its draft referendum bill, the Scottish Government has no mandate to hold one.

Nicola Sturgeon appears to believe it is inconceivable a Section 30 order would not be granted by Mrs May, as one had been by her predecessor David Cameron. She might be right. A significant proportion of Scots feel the issue should have been settled by the 2014 poll but an appetite for putting the question again has risen since the Brexit vote.

Should there be sufficient clamour for a second referendum, then it is hard to imagine the UK Government refusing to allow a further vote or grant the outcome recognition. In regard to a mandate, the position is clear. The SNP stood on a manifesto pledge to hold a further referendum if circumstances changed. An EU exit against Scotland’s will was given as a specific example of the kind of change in circumstances that would trigger such action.

The party won the election, albeit without an overall majority. The First Minister has a mandate and, assuming she can (with the support, most likely, of the Scottish Greens) push a bill through Parliament, that would be confirmed. Of course, there may be no second referendum; all this bill does is ensure the Scottish Government is prepared. It might be that the outcome of the UK Government’s Brexit talks is so positive that a referendum is not felt necessary. The UK Government might give Ms Sturgeon the powers she seeks over immigration and doing trade deals with other countries.

The possible outcomes are many but should the First Minister decide to call another vote, its timing will be a major challenge.

Scotland risks being halfway out of Europe before a referendum can be concluded. Still, the SNP will not want to risk appearing precipitate by seeking independence too soon and may have much to lose.

Many No voters last time voted that way because of unanswered questions about the future. If another referendum is to be held, this should only happen once we know the results of Brexit negotiations. The Scottish Government’s bill contains few surprises. The terms of any referendum are likely to be broadly similar to those of the previous one, including a similar question and rules about conduct and the counting of votes. The continuation of the extension of voting to 16 and 17-year-olds is particularly welcome. Should it happen, Scotland can look forward to the same level of vigorous democratic engagement provoked by the 2014 campaign.

If and when a second independence referendum is called, it is important to be clear that this would not be a referendum on Brexit itself but on whether Scotland’s interests would be best pursued within the Union or within the EU. Neither choice may be wholly palatable but, while we may have a choice between the two, we can no longer remain in both.