SO the can has been kicked down the road again.
Nicola Sturgeon’s statement to parliament about the timing of a second independence referendum was the result, she claimed, of reflection after the general election.
There was good cause for introspection. While the SNP emerged ahead of its rivals in Scotland, it lost seats and vote share, with the prospect of another referendum assumed to have cost it significant support.
Yet is hard to see exactly what the reflection has achieved. Ms Sturgeon’s reasons for delaying an independence vote seem opaque, her announcement born more of pragmatism than principle.
All yesterday’s statement told us is that the Scottish Government will not attempt to pass a law to enable a further independence referendum at present. In practice, such legislation is already stalled, given the lack of a Section 30 order from Westminster to allow it – and Teresa May’s stated reluctance to grant such an order.
In the meantime the Scottish Government will put its “shoulder to the wheel” to ensure Scotland gets the best deal possible under a future Brexit, Ms Sturgeon says. Given there is no guarantee of a future Yes vote for independence, it would be a dereliction of duty for her to do anything else.
In fact, the content of her statement was strikingly similar to the one she gave in March at Bute House, insisting the option of a second independence poll was necessary. The messages were the same: Scotland must be listened to, must not be dragged out of Europe without a say in the process. Except in one respect - the earlier speech saw her repeatedly stressing the need for urgency. This was notably absent yesterday.
In March she referred three times to the danger of leaving a referendum too late in the Brexit process. “By the time these fears are realized, it will be too late for Scotland to choose a different path before the damage is done,” she said. Now, progress will be reassessed in Autumn next year, with a fresh referendum not practical until 2020 or even 2021 according to some commentators.
Of course, quoting back ill-advised words is a game all can play – as Ms Sturgeon showed, reminding Ruth Davidson that she had once argued a No vote on independence was the only way to protect Scotland’s place in the EU.
But there is little doubt there is pressure on Ms Sturgeon - elements of her own support are both frustrated by this delay, and anxious lest an opportunity be lost. There arguably will not be a better chance to achieve independence than Brexit, but the timing, for the SNP, is crucial. As the general election showed, the timing is not right. Ms Sturgeon’s gamble is that as the likely outcome of Brexit becomes more apparent, so will the right moment for another referendum.
In the meantime she is right to push for the best possible deal for Scotland. But the independence referendum question remains in the background, and opponents will continue to attack the SNP leader over a lack of focus on the ‘day job’. She cannot keep putting it off for ever.
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