ALL the signs point to it going in favour of the Yes voters. But relax, all you home-grown social media political trolls and Twitter warriors, there’s no need to reach for your keyboards. I’m talking here not about Scotland but Iraqi Kurdistan.

This weekend I head back to the Middle East to see for myself the preparations under way and sample the political mood, before Kurds in Iraq go to the polls in a September referendum that could take them on the first step towards independence.

The Kurds’ search for independence is nothing new, of course. Ever since at least the end of the First World War, they have hankered for a state of their own. Back then however, when colonial powers carved up the Middle East, their territory ended up split between modern-day Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. In the years since it’s been pretty much the same old story, with other nations calling the shots over Kurdish aspirations towards statehood. That situation continues to be the order of the day. For just as the polling date of September 25 grows ever nearer, so speculation mounts over whether the referendum will actually go ahead as planned.

There are number of reasons for this. To begin with, Washington is none too enamoured by the idea of the Kurds in Iraq taking steps towards self-determination. Sure, it is happy enough for Kurdish fighters to fight and die pushing out Islamic State (IS) jihadists from Iraq and neighbouring Syria, but talk of Kurdish independence irks the Americans.

That much was evident recently after US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made a telephone call to Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Masoud Barzani, asking him to postpone the ballot. The bottom line here is that Washington wants to keep Baghdad sweet. The Americans and indeed other western nations – the UK included – worry that the vote could ignite a fresh conflict between the KRG in Erbil and the Iraqi government in Baghdad.

Their fears, to be fair, are not unfounded. For some time there has been no love lost between Erbil and Baghdad and the possibility of another regional flash point is very much a real one.

Repeatedly during visits to the region over the course of the past year, I’ve heard senior Kurdish officials voice such concerns. Most of these leaders, though, have also listened endlessly to the arguments of those opposing moves towards independence along with consistent appeals for the Kurds to hold back on such ambitions until the problems of the region can be solved.

But as any cursory glance at the Middle East right now will confirm, that is a big ask, given there are few signs of that happening anytime soon. Add to this the fact that Turkey, Iran and Syria, which together with Iraq have sizeable Kurdish populations, all oppose an independent Kurdistan and you begin to fully realise how much the Kurds are up against it.

Never one to shirk away from threats and pressure, the Kurds to their credit have so far stuck to their diplomatic guns much as they have real ones on the battlefield. Let’s not forget that it was the Kurds – albeit with US support who held the line when the Iraqi Army was in the process of collapsing under IS assault.

Welcome as that American support was, it appears not to have left Iraqi Kurds beholden to Washington or thus far succumb to US pressure over the September ballot. Hoshyar Zebari, a close adviser to KRG President Barzani, whom I met on my last visit a few months ago, maintains that the date for the referendum stands. Mr Barzani meanwhile simply responded to those who have said independence is not good for the Kurds by asking a question some Scottish pro-independence supporters might themselves doubtless think a worthy retort. “If it’s not good for us, why is it good for you?” inquired Mr Barzani.

Not all Kurds, though, are convinced that the time is right. Some insist the referendum is premature, and it makes more sense to spend time correcting inadequacies of governance in Kurdistan before embarking on the potentially rocky road towards independence. They argue that disunity among the Kurdish political parties remains an Achilles heel and that some sort of real understanding with Baghdad over the future must first be established.

September’s ballot is not in itself a vote on independence but simply seeks to establish a mandate to move the Kurdish region in that direction. For many Kurds I’ve spoken with, the question of timing over independence is something of a moot point. Most respond simply by saying that it’s never a good time, but now has to be done.

While for many the waiting is over, the risks remain real. One such example is the city of Kirkuk, which will come under the referendum. While Kirkuk has a Kurdish majority, it is also home to Arabs and Turkmen and prized by both Erbil and Baghdad for having the country’s richest oil fields. By any stretch of the imagination it’s hard to see Baghdad simply relinquishing control of this hugely lucrative asset should the outcome of the referendum point that way.

Many of us here in Scotland or in other places like Catalonia or Quebec who have faced or are facing questions over self-determination and independence will be all too familiar with some of the dilemmas the Kurds face. During all of my visits, Iraqi Kurds I have spoken with have remained fascinated by the Scottish experience, some possessing a near-encyclopaedic knowledge of our independence campaign and referendum. Parallels there might be, but significant differences exist too, not least the volatile atmosphere that prevails across Iraq and wider region.

If I had to take a punt, I’d say that barring some massive political or financial incentive thrown Erbil’s way by the US, the Kurds will stick to their September referendum commitment. That being the case, the outcome could prove either transformative or tragic in its long-term implications. The Kurds have long waited for their dream of independence to materialise, and the latest polls suggest that is the direction in which they are moving. Here’s hoping that should the referendum indeed go ahead, it works out peacefully and productively both for them and all Iraqis.