THERE is what a Chancellor says and there is what a Chancellor does and it is hard to think of another Budget where the gap between the two has been so great. Philip Hammond started his speech telling us about an economy that is confounding those who try to talk it down. He also spoke about a glorious future outside the EU full of new opportunities. The Chancellor wanted to convince us that things are looking up for the country and the economy, but just one look at the details and the truth is revealed: the economy is in trouble and there is precious little in the Budget that will change that.

To give credit where it’s due, there were a number of measures that are extremely welcome. The rise in the national living wage by 4.4 per cent, for instance, even though it was one of the few measures aimed at tackling the squeeze on living standards. The tax changes for the oil and gas sector are also welcome and when they come into force in November next year there is the real prospect that they could encourage new investment that the sector badly needs.

The scrapping of the VAT charges on the police and fire service in Scotland was also a good – and over-due – decision, although Mr Hammond could not resist making as much political trouble out of the decision as he could. SNP ministers had been fully aware at the time of the mergers that the police and fire services would be subject to VAT, he said. He also sought to give the 13 Scottish Conservative MPs all the credit for the decision to refund the VAT from next year; they had campaigned for him to make the change and so, with great fanfare, he did.

In one way, the VAT change does demonstrate the new prominence of the Scottish Conservative MPs and the opportunity they have to make their mark with a minority government. The Scottish Tories also clearly think they have been given a handy stick with which to beat the SNP. However, if there is a demonstration of the limit of the influence of the Scottish Tories it is in the fact that some of the other apparent boosts for Scotland do not stand up so well.

Take the extra £2bn that Scotland will apparently receive in Barnett consequentials. It has a nice ring to it - £2bn – and was loudly cheered in the Commons, but what does the figure really boil down to? It does represent a boost to the Scottish Budget, but most of the £2bn is essentially a borrowing facility that has to be repaid to the Treasury. The Scottish Government is also constrained in how it can use the funding.

As for extra money that could be spent on health and education, the figure is much closer to £350m over five years, although even that does not reflect the real picture as the £350m does not come close to offsetting the squeeze on the block grant, which is lagging behind inflation. Nicola Sturgeon says that once the block grant is taken into account, the trumpeted £2bn extra is actually a real terms cut of £239 million in the 2018/19 budget. That figure will be contested by the Conservatives, but the Scottish Government can still validly complain about a real-terms budget cut next year.

Elsewhere in Mr Hammond’s budget, the headlines were just as eye-catching even though they could not conceal the deeper truth. Every Chancellor seeks to have a rabbit-out-of-the-hat moment and Mr Hammond’s was abolishing stamp duty up to £300,000 for first-time buyers south of the Border. The measure will undoubtedly ease the pressure for some young first-timers in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and it is also fair to ask the Scottish Government if it will implement a similar cut to Land and Buildings Transaction Tax in Scotland. But Mr Hammond had to perform his magic trick on stamp duty with one hand tied behind his back, constrained by the factor that is driving everything: Brexit.

The effects are seen particularly in the woeful growth forecasts. For years, the Office for Budget Responsibility has been wrongly predicting a significant pick-up in productivity, but it would seem that it has finally had enough of being wrong and is now predicting the economy will grow by just 1.5 per cent this year, down from the estimate of two per cent it made in March.

Mr Hammond was determined to put the most positive spin possible on the news, but the OBR predictions compare badly to other EU economies, and the reason, again, is Brexit.

Mr Hammond did succeed in revealing some headline-grabbing measures in his Budget, but whatever he does, he cannot change the fact that it is Brexit not the Chancellor of the Exchequer that is shaping the British economy. Brexit will also undoubtedly decide the fate of a Government that is determined to push ahead with it.