BOTH sides of the Brexit talks used some pretty anodyne phrases to describe what happened at this week’s meeting between Theresa May and Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council. The meeting, we were told, had been “good and friendly” and the discussions were “positive”. Britain is leaving the EU and the divorce is happening. But in the words of one EU source, both parties have agreed to stay in touch.
Ahead of the meeting, the UK Government was determined to convince us the summit was the first step in a great new opportunity for the UK. The talks with Mr Tusk, said the Prime Minister, were about ensuring a deal that worked for the people of the UK. “We have said very clearly we want to maintain a deep and special partnership with the EU,” said Mrs May.
However, the upbeat tone has never really been convincing. For a start, the EU has already laid down negotiating priorities that will make the talks difficult for the UK, but the economic indicators at home are also telling a different story.
According to the latest Markit UK Report on jobs and recruitment, there are serious signs of worsening staff shortages in Scotland. The report says demand for permanent staff rose at the quickest rate for 25 months in March at the same time as Scottish recruiters reported the steepest increase in demand for temporary staff since 2014.
And the report is not alone in providing signs of economic trouble. Another recent survey showed that a growing proportion of technology firms in Scotland, 73 per cent, expect to recruit the majority of new staff from within Scotland, compared with 60 per cent in 2016. The survey, published by industry body ScotlandIS, also showed nine per cent of businesses forecast new talent will come from outside the UK, down from 21 per cent.
There are a number of worrying consequences to all this, but the main concern is that Brexit is already undermining one of the UK’s most important assets: its diverse and skilled workforce. Kevin Green, the chief executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, said finding people to do the jobs on offer was rapidly becoming the biggest headache for employers, with many reporting that an increasing number of white collar jobs are hard to fill.
What this appears to demonstrate is that Brexit is already having the effect many Remainers feared it would. Much of the focus of the argument has been on the question of whether people will be allowed to stay after Brexit, but the economic indicators are that people are leaving already, or choosing not to come to the UK, and that employers are feeling the effects.
The UK Government’s response is that the negative effects of Brexit will be more than made up for by the opening of new markets – the Scottish Secretary David Mundell was saying it again this week in Singapore. But will a move to boost exports to Singapore, Qatar or any other non-EU country really make up for the damage done to the UK economy by Brexit? The UK Government keeps telling us that Brexit is a great opportunity and that new doors will open, but now that the meetings between the two sides have started, the only real hope is that the Government can limit the damage.
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