FINALLY, the day is upon us. Almost a year to the day since Britons voted to leave the EU, in a referendum instigated by David Cameron, Britain begins the Brexit negotiations with the countries who have been our partners for the last four decades.
It is fair to say that we might have wished for more auspicious omens than the ones currently visible.
Today’s event is a formal affair: a one-day event at the European Commission’s Berlaymont building in Brussels, ending in the late afternoon with a joint press conference by Secretary of State David Davis and Michel Barnier, the European Chief Negotiator for Brexit. Yesterday it was said that Mr Davis’s team would travel to Belgium confident of achieving a “bold and ambitious” deal that would be in the interest of the UK. The minister himself is expected to say today that the destination is clear: a “deep and special partnership between the UK and EU”.
But there are several factors that are impossible to ignore. Mrs May’s authority is undeniably in shreds. Backbenchers have declared that she must shape up or ship out. A leading Conservative-supporting newspaper, surveying the fall-out both from the London fire and the general election, speaks of a government that seems to be drifting and rudderless, overwhelmed by the scale of the tasks ahead, not least Brexit. If huge numbers of British voters and opinion-makers can no longer take the Prime Minister seriously, think what the Euro seasoned negotiators will make of her.
There is furthermore the small matter of what impact, if any, the DUP’s demands will have on the Brexit deal we seek.
The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, is one of the senior Tories who are determined to see a softer Brexit. He takes the view that most people want a deal that would protect jobs and economic growth. Yesterday, on television, he said that “no deal” would be a “very bad outcome”.
As the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, acknowledged yesterday, many people - bankers, students, academics or others with concerns about the outcome of the Brexit talks - are genuinely worried that the entire process will end up with Britain being left, isolated, on the Continent’s margins. Mr Johnson ringingly declares that he believes the exact opposite will be the case: but the fears he encountered are widespread and genuine.
Key business leaders, including the Tory peer Stuart Rose, have called for a soft Brexit. Lord Rose says the recent election result was a “proxy pre-referendum” on a hard Brexit. Fears have also been expressed about the impact of Britain withdrawing from the Single Market and the Customs Union, and about the effect on our economy.
The Conservatives, are, in short, once again in turmoil over Europe: it is their natural state. So here we are, for better or worse, on the day that has loomed for months. The pro-Brexiters are bullish and excited. Countless others, though, having seen Mrs May bulldozer through her unrelenting vision of the hardest of all possible Brexits, and conscious of the many authoritative warnings that have been sounded, are filled with foreboding.
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