HOW high can house prices go? Just a few weeks ago we learned that the average deposit needed for first-time house buyers in Edinburgh is now £37,661, while in London it is a quite staggering £139,987. And yet still the prices rise.
According to the latest UK House Price Index, published this week, the average price of a property in Scotland in January was £148,512 – that’s an increase of 7.3 per cent in just 12 months. With so many buyers already struggling to find a home they can afford, the question has to be asked: how much longer can this go on?
The honest answer is not long without serious consequences for the economy and for the millions of house buyers taking on ever increasing levels of debt. Part of the reason the house market is still powering ahead in Scotland is because low interest rates mean the cost of a mortgage compares favourably to long-term rent. It is also obvious, and troubling, that mortgage lenders’ appetite for risk is increasing again, with more loans being offered at up to 4.5 times the borrower’s income.
However, anyone who remembers why the financial crash happened 10 short years ago will know that all of this is storing up serious trouble for the future. One of the reasons the economy came crashing down in 2007 was that it was based on debt piled upon debt, but here we are again with an economy that relies far too much on people buying houses and lots of consumer goods and borrowing money to pay for it all. The risk is that the chickens will come home to roost, just like they did 10 years ago.
The Bank of England did take some action last year by tweaking interest rates up the way and another tiny rise is to be expected soon. But any serious increase to tackle the rise in house prices looks unlikely, mainly because it would hit one of the few planks our economy is resting on: consumer spending. The human cost would also be great as repossessions would increase.
Which leaves us looking for other ways to re-tune the market. One obvious partial solution is a big increase in the number of affordable houses and the Scottish Government has said it will deliver at least 50,000 by 2021. There are plenty of unanswered questions about the policy, chiefly where the land will come from, but the ambition is heading in the right direction.
The relationship between the housing market and the private rented sector also needs attention. In many European countries, private rental is a serious alternative to home ownership – indeed, in some countries it is the first choice – but in Britain, the cost makes it a poor choice for many people, particularly families with children who are looking for a dependable home. With so much of the market here funded by venture capital money, restrictions may be needed on the numbers of properties that can be bought for rent.
In the meantime, first-time buyers are faced with the reality of what the first rung of today’s property ladder means: a deposit of some £20,000-30,000. Raising that kind of money is extremely hard, if not impossible, for most people - some will rely on their parents because they have to, but not everyone has access to a branch of the famous Bank of Mum and Dad.
Some might say the answer is that we should all be less obsessed with owning a house – an obsession fed to a great extent by the right-to-buy policy of the 1980s. But today’s buyers are really paying the price for our failure to learn the lessons of the financial crash.
In 2010, the UK Government talked about the march of the makers and said the recovery would be different this time. Instead, we have done it again and tried to base a recovery on the shaky pillar of debt. It is not the fault of the people who want to buy a house, but in the long term all of us may pay the price.
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