Who will wield the dagger in the cabinet?
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David Miliband
Foreign Secretary
When you publish about concerns over Labour's future and don't mention or defend Gordon Brown, what conclusions can people make other than you're mounting a challenge for the top job? Miliband said he was challenging David Cameron, not Brown, but he is campaigning for a successful government, which Brown isn't delivering. Thought about challenging Brown after Tony Blair's exit, but decided the timing was wrong. Miliband can't afford to bottle it again, he will not get a third chance.
Dagger out
Alan Johnston
Health Secretary
The health secretary has support in the wider party and many believe he would be a tougher opponent for Cameron to crush than Miliband. He would be a unifying candidate, one with experience beyond Westminster. Lacking Miliband or Brown's intellectual credentials but his supporters don't care. Approached to stand and his hat would be in the ring if Brown marched. Admits he has the ambition to want to be at the top. Loyalty has served him well, so he would be a hesitant member of any assassinocracy.
Dagger in
Alistair Darling
Chancellor
Rumours of the chancellor being shifted in the September reshuffle and being offered the Foreign Office will do little to ease Darling's fears that he is being lined up as the fall guy for the Brown government's economic failings. The City doesn't rate Darling, but he is a chancellor who inherited an on-coming train smash and had a PM reluctant to hand over complete control of the Treasury. He is a long-time ally of Brown. Involvement in any plot to remove him would have seemed inconceivable even just a few months ago. But this is no ordinary crisis.
Dagger in
Harriet Harman
Deputy Party Leader
Did the Leader of the Commons and Labour's deputy leader really say this was her "moment" when the catastrophe of the Glasgow East by-election was announced? Harman denies being excited at the prospect of becoming Labour's first female leader and Britain's second woman PM after Thatcher. Denies making any preparations for a campaign. But if Miliband and Johnson turn out to be a nightmare rather than a dream ticket, Harman could become the face of sensible Labour, having shown how pragmatism might work in a divided party.
Dagger out
Hillary Benn
Environment Secretary
The environment secretary is not a natural plotter. But despite being once talked of as a potential post-Blair leader, his career has stalled under Blair's final years, and Brown. But his fourth place in the deputy leadership contest, coming behind Harriet Harman, Alan Johnson and Jon Cruddas, indicates he doesn't hold much support inside the wider party. Despite being a Benn, he is no Bennite like his father, but is said to be disappointed at what has happened under Brown. However, he will probably put his faith in the party and the natural course of politics rather than being seen to be part of an elite coup.
Dagger in
John Hutton
Business Secretary
What exactly did the business secretary mean when he said Labour had to do more to avoid defeat at the next general election? "We've not been doing well enough," Hutton said. He denied this meant Brown was a failure, insisting the current leader could still triumph in 2010. Hutton finds himself in the admit-our-mistakes wing of the Cabinet, but that doesn't translate into dumping Brown for another leader who might equally bomb in the polls. Hutton is praying for better times ahead and as an ultra-Blairite probably can't quite believe what is happening.
Dagger in
Yvette Cooper
Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The chief secretary to the Treasury is the wife of Ed Balls. So see our entry on Ed Balls, above right, and expect exactly the same from Cooper. This is a family with everything invested in Brown. Her currency in the City as chief secretary may be lower than the Zimbabwe dollar.
Dagger in
Ruth Kelly
Transport Secretary
The transport secretary is one of the more obvious targets for demotion when Brown reshuffles his team in September. Kelly has failed to shine in most of the senior jobs she's been given since Tony Blair first appointed her education secretary in 2004. Her ministerial trajectory is downward and neither Brown nor a new leader will change that. Loyalty is her best card.
Dagger in
Andy Burnham
Culture Secretary
The culture secretary is said to be ready to back David Miliband if he puts his name forward in a leadership contest. But that's not the same thing as being part of a public coup to oust Gordon Brown. Burnham, like work and pensions secretary James Purnell, is young and ambitious, so he won't want his loyalty card marked by an open move that might come back to haunt him when, and if, his time comes. Burnham will keep his powder dry and let others get blood on their hands.
Dagger in
Hazel Blears
Communities Minister
The communities and local government minister is a Labour Party evangelist; even the mere thought of disloyalty will not occur to her. Coming sixth in the deputy leadership contest reminded her of her standing beyond the front line. Loyalty got her where she is; loyalty, she doubtless believes, will keep her there.
Dagger in
Geoff Hoon
Chief Whip
The chief whip is a former barrister who since the start of the Iraq war believes he's never had the credit his talent and vision deserve. Nicknamed "Buff-hoon" when defence secretary, Hoon is said to "know where the bodies are buried" should anyone ask how much Brown knew and backed Blair over Iraq. Loyalty barely rewarded by Blair, he's fared better under Brown and holds hopes of being dispatched to Europe as a commissioner. But disenchantment with Brown's leadership skills is likely to affect his loyalty despite the carrot of Brussels.
Dagger out
Jack Straw
Justice Secretary
The justice secretary may not have a formal plan to succeed Brown but is aware of his potential to become a "caretaker" prime minister while Labour works out what it wants. Has denied plotting with other senior figures and insists the party must rally round Brown. That is Straw's loyalty strategy. The other side of the equation has him being pressurised by MPs and ministers before September to be the one that calls time on Brown. Straw reinvents himself on a regular basis. The statesman-as-saviour could be his next creation.
Dagger out
Des Browne
Scottish Secretary
The man in the Cabinet with two jobs - at defence and in the Scotland Office - has much to lose if Brown goes early. But Des Browne will play no part in any would-be coup despite rumours that the prime minister is considering shifting him in the September reshuffle. Would that make him think again about putting his career first and looking around for a sharp dagger? No. Loyalty has rewarded Browne. He'll keep it that way.
Dagger in
Shaun Woodward
Northern Ireland Secretary
The Northern Ireland secretary was once a Conservative frontbench spokesman and its former director of communications. Opportunism and a sense of when to act against the natural flow would therefore seem an obvious attribute of Woodward. But while in Northern Ireland under Brown, he has, contrary to expectations, delivered a steady and respected ministerial performance. Promotion in September is thought to be on the cards for Woodward, taking him into even higher territory within the Labour Party. Would he risk throwing that away for promises made by being part of a leadership coup that might fail? No. Expect Woodward to defend Brown and be praying for a Tory implosion between now and 2010.
Dagger in
Jacqui Smith
Home Secretary
Brown elevated her to home secretary in one of the surprise promotions of his first Cabinet and despite a less than star-studded performance so far, he appears to have no plans to move her. Smith's immediate career is therefore linked to Brown remaining in Downing Street.
Dagger in
James Purnell
Work and Pensions Secretary
At 38, the work and pensions secretary is Labour's "not yet" candidate. Purnell knows that time is on his side, and with little support inside the parliamentary party, he also knows the coming fight isn't going to feature him. Has said that if Miliband stands, he wouldn't challenge. Purnell is still a policy wonk, more lieutenant than commander, so will take the long-term view of remaining loyal to leader and party.
Dagger in
Douglas Alexander
International Development Secretary
Still close to Brown, but not as close as he once was. For Alexander this is either a dilemma or the reality of hard-ball politics. Given undeserved blame for the election-that-never-was. Had Brown actually gone to the country last year, Alexander's career would be in better shape. Seeing a decade and more of opposition ahead might affect Alexander's reflex loyalty. But few would bet on it.
Dagger in
Ed Balls
Schools Secretary
The schools secretary is as tied to Gordon Brown as his shadow. Alongside Brown as they plotted to control and run the Treasury as a government-within-a-government during the Blair years, Balls has nothing to gain from seeing the downfall of Brown. If Brown hangs on and fights the next general election in two years' time, Balls might then be a contender. This summer? The only plotting Balls will do is to keep Brown in Number 10.
Dagger in
AND BIG BEASTS OUTSIDE THE CABINET ...
Charles Clarke
Alan Milburn
The two big beasts outside the Cabinet most likely to have any influence on whether Brown goes or stays. As Blairite plotters they loathed the "opposition" government that Brown was running in the Treasury. Is this their chance to do to Brown what he regularly did to Blair?
Clarke was one of the senior figures who urged Miliband to stand against Brown last year. That position won't have changed much and Clarke will do all he can to ensure Miliband doesn't pass up the chance again. Milburn is different - there are some signs of a potential rehabilitation for the arch-Blairite. A place back in the Cabinet in September for Milburn may be Brown wanting to show that past divisions are, well, past. Milburn has apparently been to Number 10 on a few occasions to "advise" Brown on how to improve delivery.
So for once, Clarke and Milburn may not be acting as a pair of plotters and going their own way.
Clarke: Dagger out
Milburn: Dagger in
Part 1 - The battle for Labour's soul
Part 3 - Holyrood - Gray supporter bought campaign website before Alexander quit
