NICOLA Sturgeon has raised the prospect of a second Scottish independence referendum taking place on the back of the EU referendum result, saying she is now “less certain” that the UK will vote to stay in the Brussels bloc.

Writing for The Economist’s annual predictions edition, The World in 2016, the First Minister says the EU debate is “about to become an all-consuming issue with potentially huge political and economic consequences” but expresses her concerns that the Prime Minister will fail to deliver on his promise of wide-ranging reforms to the EU.

She says: “I am far less certain of the outcome of David Cameron's in-out referendum on European Union membership than I previously have been.

“I hope the result will be for the UK to remain in the EU and that is an outcome which I and my party will campaign for vigorously.”

Ms Sturgeon points to the only clear trigger, which she has thus far mentioned, that would lead to a second referendum ie that the UK voted to leave the EU while Scotland voted to remain in, “potentially seeing us dragged out of Europe against our will”.

This, she explains, “may well see the demand for a second independence referendum become unstoppable”.

But the FM then adds: “I believe Mr Cameron and his government risk that scenario because of a likely gulf between what his promised renegotiation of the UK's terms of membership will deliver and what is expected of it.

“Collaboration between nations…is key to addressing the world’s problems. Yet I fear the British Government’s approach in dealing with our European partners runs counter to that.”

In a speech in Dublin, Alex Salmond claimed Euro-sceptic Scots will vote to remain under Brussels' rule in the Brexit referendum in an attempt to provoke a split in Britain.

The ex-First Minister said "devious manipulation" in vote management could help bring about a defining schism on the European question in the UK.
This would inevitably lead to a new referendum on Scottish independence, he told a gathering in Dublin.
"Aye, well, it's a wee bit devious," he said, when asked if an overall vote for Brexit would help his lifetime's ambition.
"I have kind of worked out what our campaign, our plan of action should be.
"Clearly, everybody in Scotland has to vote 'in', because one half of the equation - Scotland's 'in' vote and then England's 'out' vote - is that Scotland votes 'in' heavily.
"I know euro-sceptics in Scotland who are so positive on the national question they are going to vote 'in' just to hopefully create this situation."
The ex-Scottish National Party leader said the London branch of his party would have to heavily vote "out" in such a scenario.
"It will require quite an amount of devious manipulation," he said, but added: "I think we will just campaign for 'in' and see how the cards fall."
The MP and MSP said he believes the in/out Brexit referendum will take place next September.
Scotland should vote in favour of remaining as part of the EU by two to one, he predicted.
He also believes it is possible England could vote to leave the union.
"Then you would have a situation which Nicola (Sturgeon) has described as a material change in circumstances, which might well provoke a very rapid second referendum in Scotland," he added.
Either way, and despite losing last year's Scottish independence referendum, Mr Salmond insisted a break-up of the UK was now "as near to inevitable as anything comes to inevitable".
"What else could do it? Trident on the Clyde for the next 50 years, a decision on that," he said.
"Another Tory government in 2020... (These are) all political events which could provoke another referendum."

Last month, Ms Sturgeon left many SNP supporters unhappy when she dampened down the prospect of a second poll any time soon; indeed, some of her colleagues believe that one before 2021 is highly unlikely and that time is needed to persuade the majority who voted No in 2014 to change their minds.

She told delegates: “To propose another referendum in the next parliament(2016-2021) without strong evidence that a significant number of those who voted No have changed their minds would be wrong and we won’t do it. It would not be respecting the decision that people made.”

But the FM went on to point out that another vote would be justified if there were “strong and consistent evidence” that Scots had changed their minds and independence had become “the choice of a clear majority in the country”.

She also highlighted the so-called “double-lock” on the EU referendum, warning that if David Cameron took Scotland out of the EU against its wishes, then he would be “breaching the terms of last year’s vote” because the Prime Minister claimed the only way to protect EU membership was to reject independence.

Opinion polls have shown that the desire for the UK to remain in the EU is higher in Scotland than in England.