LABOUR is set to remain the largest party in the Welsh Assembly but will lose seats, an eve-of-election poll suggested.
The ruling Labour administration is seeking a record fifth term in office with a YouGov/ITV Wales poll predicting the party is set to keep its grip on power with a 33 per cent share of the constituency vote and 31 per cent on regional ballots.
However, the snapshot suggested Labour - which had an effective working majority of 30 seats after the 2011 vote - would win three fewer seats this time round, meaning there could be a minority or coalition government in the Cardiff Senedd, possibly with the Liberal Democrats.
The poll also predicted second place would be fought between the Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru with significant gains for Nigel Farage’s Ukip.
Political expert Professor Roger Scully, who drew up a seat projection based on the figures, said Labour was still the party to beat.
"It remains well ahead of the field, though their support levels in this poll are close to those in 2007, their worst-ever Assembly election.
"No other party has yet mounted a strong challenge to them. This is despite the party having lost considerable ground since 2011.”
In constituency voting, the Welsh political barometer poll placed Labour unchanged since an April survey on 33 per cent, the Tories up two on 21, Plaid down two on 19, Ukip up one on 16 and the Lib Dems unchanged on eight.
On regional voting, the snapshot had Labour up two on 31, Plaid down two on 20, the Tories up one on 20, Ukip also up one on 16 and the Lib Dems down two on six.
Prof Scully's seat projection, based on the figures, predicted: Labour on 27 seats with 25 constituency and two list seats; Plaid on 12 seats with six constituency and six list seats; the Tories on 11 with seven constituency and four list seats; Ukip on eight, all list seats and the Lib Dems on two, both constituency seats.
“This is a very disappointing poll for Plaid Cymru,” declared prof Scully. “Our two previous barometer polls had apparently suggested some momentum in the Plaid campaign, yet this final pre-election poll shows any apparent surge in their support halting and possibly even going into reverse.
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"The Tories will be more encouraged by this poll; the trend downwards in their support seems to have been checked. If the Conservatives can out-perform their poll rating, as they have done in some previous assembly elections, then they might well finish second in both seats and votes."
He also said Ukip's support had "defied the expectations "of some observers.
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