Hello and welcome to The Midge, the e-bulletin that takes a bite out of politics in Scotland and elsewhere. 

Today

  • Remain hopes rise as markets rally 
  • Curtice: treat any poll lead with caution
  • The Herald backs Remain
  • RMT members on ScotRail stage 24-hour strike
  • Quarter of National Trust for Scotland staff facing redundancy

06.00 BBC Today headlines

Ex-adviser says Cameron told four years ago that reaching net migration target impossible while Britain in EU … Downing Street “did not recognise” Steve Hilton’s story … Soros issues Brexit warning … British man arrested for allegedly planning attack on Donald Trump … NSPCC say internet playing significant role in abuse of children … Nurses warn A&E recruitment crises putting patients at risk … Rail strikes … Wales through to next stage of Euro 2016. 

07.00 BBC Good Morning Scotland headlines

Steve Hilton claim ... Soros warning ... Rail disruption ... Senate fails to pass gun control measure ... Increase in sexual messages sent to children ... National Trust for Scotland redundancies ... Man dies after car smashes into house in Aberdeen ... Jo Cox charity fund passes £1 million mark. 

Front pages

The Herald:

The Herald leads on a poll showing Remain with a six point lead over Leave. It notes, alongside the Times and the FT, that the pound soared yesterday after a weekend of similar results. 

The National says it is time for a “kinder politics” as MPs pay tribute to Jo Cox. 

The Evening Times reports that the new Rangers kit won’t be available for fans to buy because of a trademark dispute. 

The Guardian leads on George Soros’s warning of a Brexit-induced “Black Friday”. See five in five seconds, below. 

The Telegraph says the EU vote is going down to the wire as it declares its backing for Leave. “We are not harking back to some Britannic golden age lost in the mists of time,” the paper says, “but looking forward to a new beginning for our country.”

The Mail says Scots rail passengers are facing misery today, with the Edinburgh Waverley to Glasgow Queen Street route cut from six journeys each way every hour to just one. 

The Sun leads on an interview given by Andy Murray’s grandparents to the Radio Times in which they reveal they were sent “nasty letters” about the Wimbledon and Olympic gold winner. The poison pen notes had a go at his “snarling” and accent. 

Camley’s Cartoon

The Herald:

Camley spots a change in direction in the EU campaign.  

Five in five seconds: a Black Friday?

The Herald:

1. There has been no shortage of dire warnings on the cost of a Brexit, but one in particular stands out this morning. Writing in the Guardian, George Soros, above, predicts a “Black Friday” if the UK votes for a Brexit on Thursday. 

2. So? You’ve heard of The Man who Broke the Bank at Monte Carlo, well the Hungarian-American currency speculator and philanthropist’s nickname is The Man who Broke the Bank of England. He bet against the pound on September 16, 1992, helping to force the UK out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism and making himself a cool billion dollars in the process. 

3. And this time? He predicts that Brexit would cause a plunge in the value of sterling by at least 15% and possibly more than 20%. But unlike on “Black Wednesday” in 1992, this fall would not be followed by interest rate cuts or other goodies. 

4. “Sterling is almost certain to fall steeply and quickly if leave wins the referendum,” he writes. “I would expect this devaluation to be bigger and also more disruptive than the 15% devaluation that occurred in 1992.” This would have “an immediate and dramatic” impact on markets, investment, prices and jobs. "Brexit would make some people very rich - but most voters considerably poorer.

5. Vote Leave’s response? "He predicted similar doom and gloom if we didn't join the euro. He was wrong then and he is wrong now,” said Matthew Elliott, chief executive. 

Afore Ye Go

The Herald:

"Jo Cox: We love you, we salute you and we shall never forget you.”

Labour MP Stephen Kinnock pays tribute in the Commons to the late MP for Batley and Spen, his friend and colleague. Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

The Herald:

“Asked by BBC Radio 4’s Today programme to address widespread revulsion at his ‘Breaking point’ poster last week, Nigel [Farage] suggested the killing of the Labour MP hours later made it ‘unfortunate timing’. Agreed. It would have gone over a lot better in 1936.”

Marina Hyde, The Guardian. Jack Taylor/Getty Images

The Herald:

“I look at that group of people and I think they’re not the kind of people I’d get on a night bus with. Why would I want them to run the country?”

Lady Warsi, former co-chair of the Tory party on why she was leaving Leave. Leave said it was unaware she had ever been a supporter. Oli Scarff/Getty Images

The Herald:

£20 million

What bookies are expecting will be gambled on the EU referendum. If so, it will be the biggest political betting event ever. Previously, the biggest event had been Scotland’s indyref. Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

How long has Lord Forsyth waited to say that?

The Herald: “The Food and Drug Administration has approved a device for weight loss that sucks the food out of your stomach through an abdominal incision. Or, you could just try a salad some time.”

Conan O’Brien. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The Herald:

“He's interested in crop circles, too, so I send him my crop circle calendars and magazines that I buy and keep him informed. I'm his crop circle counsellor.”

Oscar-winning actor Mark Rylance, who takes the lead role in Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the BFG, on his correspondence with Prince Charles. Sydney Morning Herald

The Herald:

“Bernie Sanders is still upset because he says his fundraising dinners didn't raise as much money as Hillary Clinton's. Well, of course they didn't. Nobody wants to eat dinner at 4:00 in the afternoon.”

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

The Herald:

"The campaign is grateful to Corey for his hard work and dedication and we wish him the best in the future.”

And with that Donald Trump's campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who was charged with allegedly manhandling a reporter, Michelle Fields, before prosecutors opted not to proceed, was fired from Team Trump. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Fields sends her sympathies

The Herald:

“How can a retreat into selfish and insecure individualism be the right response when Europe faces genuine threats, when the bonds that tie us are so powerful, when we have come so far together?”

JK Rowling (above, receiving the Freedom of the City of London) issues a plea to Remain. She also attacked Donald Trump, writing on her website: “He has the temperament of an unstable nightclub bouncer, jeers at violence when it breaks out at his rallies and wears his disdain for women and minorities with pride. God help America. God help us all.” Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

The Herald:

“We’re ahead of England and that’s all that matters.”

A Wales fan as the team makes it through to the next stage of Euro 2016. 

The exciting life of a campaign bus

Thank you for reading. See you tomorrow